The quantity of wind installed last year was 37.8GW, 6.3GW more than the previous year. The percentage growth rate was flat at around 20%. It was probably unrealistic to expect a higher growth rate to continue indefinitely. The star performers, in terms of installed megawatts, were, in order, China (15.7GW) the US (6.7GW), India (3GW), Germany (1.95GW) and Spain (1GW). Of these, every country except Spain installed more capacity than last year - on average around 50% more. Spain's consistently strong performance over the past few years fell from 1.5GW in 2010. Europe, as a whole, also decelerated from 9.95GW in 2010 to 9.5GW in 2011. This "throttling back" was more than compensated by extra capacity in Asia-Pacific, increasing from 14.9GW in 2010 to 19.6GW in 2011. North America also raced ahead, increasing capacity by 7.95GW in 2011, compared with 5.75GW in 2010. Activity in Central and South America continued at a similar level to 2010, with 589MW added.
Greater contribution
The electricity produced by 228GW of wind energy would be almost sufficient to meet the yearly needs for the whole of Brazil, or three quarters of the requirements for the entire continent of Africa. The portion of total power individual countries get from wind ranges up to 25%, as this month's “uåX˜äŠÊ˜·³Ç special report on European wind integration shows. There is a growing awareness that the difficulties of assimilating wind into an electricity network are theoretical rather than real and that the extra operational costs are small.
Although strong competition in the wind-turbine market has eroded profitability in some cases, many order books are strong and turbine selling prices are generally stable. That means the competitive position of wind in Europe is strong, although the availability of cheap gas in the US means wind has a tougher market there. Meanwhile, a 30% investment tax credit expired in the US at the end of 2011. The production tax credit (PTC) continues until the end of the year. But a last-ditch effort to extend the PTC another year failed in the US Senate midway through last month, dealing another setback to an industry facing growing uncertainty over the future of federal policy support. There is a complex mix of support mechanisms elsewhere in the world.
Apart from fossil fuel sources, wind's main competitors are nuclear and, more recently, solar. With the completion of a new Finnish reactor now likely to be delayed further, that puts wind in a strong position. Although solar electricity is currently more expensive, it may come on a par with wind - in the sunniest climes - by the end of the decade. Still, with Brent Crude oil now at $125 a barrel, and concerns over energy security in many places, wind has entered 2012 in a strong position.
The quarterly Windicator is an indicator of the state of play. Changes in the table can be corrections received rather than additions or subtractions. We welcome corrections.
FEELGOOD FACTOR
Ebullience comes hard: analysts are more pessimistic than at any time last year amid a spate of bad corporate news and plunging stocks. But setbacks still plague nuclear energy and solar is still more expensive, buttressing wind and keeping the Feelgood Factor just above neutral.
VESTAS
Revenues -34.7%
EBIT -88.9%
Q4 2011 compared with Q4 2010
Stock price -16.9%
Change Jan-Mar 2012
Q4 profit/loss -$100.4m
NORDEX
Revenues -29.3%
EBIT -193.0%
Q4 2011 compared with Q4 2010
Stock price -6.3%
Change Jan-Mar 2012
Q2 profit/loss n/a
GAMESA*
Revenues +4.0%
EBIT +11.3%
Q4 2011 compared with Q4 2010
Stock price -28.4%
Change Jan-Mar 2012
Q2 profit/loss +$29.0m
*Wind turbine division only
SUZLON
Revenues +10.7%
EBIT +148.3%
Q4 2011 compared with Q4 2010
Stock price +60.0%
Change Jan-Mar 2012
Q4 profit/loss -$57.5m
GOLDWIND
Revenues n/a
EBIT n/a
Q4 2011 compared with Q4 2010
Stock price +10.6%
Change Jan-Mar 2012
Q4 profit/loss n/a
REPOWER
Revenues n/a
EBIT n/a
Q4 2011 compared with Q4 2010
Stock price +12.8%
Change Jan-Mar 2012
Q4 profit/loss n/a
WIND POWER AMBITION ON EVERY CONTINENT
Projects announced in 2012, including Angolan 100MW and a floating
Japanese plant
Country Project/ Developer(s) Onshore/ Planned Estimated
Location Offshore Size(MW) online
Angola Tombwa/ Angola Ministry
Namibe of Energy Onshore 100 2013
and Water
(owner)
Canada Chaplin/ SaskPower; Onshore 177 2016
Saskatchewan Windlectric
Canada Wentworth/ RES Canada Onshore 80 2014
Nova Scotia
Chile Pacifico/ Consultora Onshore 40
Los Lagos Ecoingenieros
China Chaganhaote I/ Titan Energy Onshore 49.5 2014
Jilin
China Lujiaquan/ (Owner: China Onshore 49.5 2014
Gansu Guodian)
India Rajasthan/ Suzlon Energy Onshore 100.8 2013
Rajasthan
India Palani/ Gamesa Onshore 24.7 2012
Tamil Nadu
Japan Fukushima Marubeni; Onshore 16 2016
floating Mitsubishi;
project Mitsui Engineering
(Marubeni)/ Nippon Steel Corp
Fukushima
Malta Hexicon Hexicon Offshore 54 2014
offshore/
Off north-
east shore
Poland Lesznia/ Contino Wind Onshore 90 2014
Podlaskie Group
UK Auchleand/ Community Onshore 42 2015
Southern “uåX˜äŠÊ˜·³Ç
Scotland
UK Glenluce/ 2020 Renewables Onshore 28 2017
Southern
Scotland
UK Belford Burn/ EnergieKontor Onshore 18 2017
North-east
England
UK River Valley/ RWE Group Onshore 16 2016
North-east
England
UK Dodd Hill/ West Coast Energy Onshore 12.5 2016
Southern
Scotland
USA Whirlwind I/ Pathfinder Onshore 400 2015
Wyoming Renewable Wind
Energy; Wold
Companies
USA Bear River Shell WindEnergy Onshore 50 2014
Ridge/
California
USA Musselshell/ Goldwind Onshore 20 2012
Montana
Source: “uåX˜äŠÊ˜·³Ç Intelligence
ASIA PACIFIC AND LATIN AMERICA UP WIND BY A THIRD
Operating wind power capacity around the world (MW)
Start 2011 Start 2012 Extra MW Chng %
EUROPE
Germany 27,126 29,075 1,949 7
Spain 20,674 21,674 1,000 5
Italy 5,798 6,747 949 16
France 5,686 6,640 954 17
UK 5,248 5,953 705 13
Portugal 3,898 4,291 393 10
Denmark 3,805 3,871 66 2
Sweden 2,163 2,907 744 34
Netherlands 2,251 2,328 77 3
Turkey 1,278 1,799 521 41
Ireland 1,428 1,631 203 14
Greece 1,205 1,629 424 35
Poland 1,180 1,616 436 37
Austria 1,011 1,084 73 7
Belgium 911 1,078 167 18
Romania 462 982 520 113
Bulgaria 375 504 129 34
Norway 448 491 43 10
Hungary 295 329 34 12
Czech Republic 215 217 2 1
Finland 197 197 0 0
Estonia 149 184 35 23
Lithuania 154 179 25 16
Ukraine 87 112 25 29
Cyprus 82 134 52 63
Croatia 69 89 20 29
Switzerland 44 46 2 5
Luxembourg 42 44 2 5
Latvia 31 30 -1 -3
Russia 11 11 0 0
Slovakia 5 5 0 0
TOTAL 86,328 95,877 9,549 11
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
Egypt 550 550 0 0
Morocco 287 292 5 2
Iran 91 110 19 21
Tunisia 54 54 0 0
South Africa 45 45 0 0
Ethiopia 0 30 30 -
Cape Verde 2 28 26 1,300
Seychelles 0 18 18 -
Israel 6 6 0 0
Kenya 5 5 0 0
Jordan 2 2 0 0
TOTAL 1,042 1,140 98 9
Asia PACIFIC
China 38,280 54,000 15,720 41
India 13,066 16,084 3,018 23
Japan 2,304 2,501 197 9
Australia 1,880 2,224 344 18
New Zealand 506 622 116 23
Taiwan 436 564 128 29
South Korea 364 407 43 12
Pacific Islands 33 38 5 15
Philippines 33 33 0 0
Vietnam 30 30 0 0
Sri Lanka 3 30 27 900
Pakistan 0 6 6
Thailand 5 5 0 0
Bangladesh 1 1 0 0
TOTAL 56,941 76,545 19,604 34
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil 930 1,377 447 48
Mexico 519 519 0 0
Chile 168 188 20 12
Costa Rica 125 132 7 6
Argentina 55 108 53 96
Caribbean 66 91 25 38
Uruguay 40 44 4 10
Nicaragua 40 40 0 0
Dominican Republic 0 33 33 -
Colombia 20 20 0 0
Cuba 12 12 0 0
Ecuador 2 2 0 0
Falkland Islands 2 2 0 0
Peru 1 1 0 0
TOTAL 1,980 2,569 589 30
NORTH AMERICA
Texas 10,082 10,377 295 3
Iowa 3,672 4,322 650 18
California 3,252 3,927 675 21
Illinois 1,862 2,743 881 47
Minnesota 2,209 2,733 524 24
Washington 2,176 2,573 397 18
Oregon 2,278 2,513 235 10
Oklahoma 1,482 2,007 525 35
Colorado 1,299 1,800 501 39
North Dakota 1,424 1,445 21 1
Wyoming 1,412 1,412 0 0
New York 1,274 1,403 129 10
Indiana 1,250 1,340 90 7
Kansas 1,074 1,274 200 19
Pennsylvania 748 789 41 5
South Dakota 709 784 75 11
New Mexico 700 750 50 7
Wisconsin 469 631 162 35
Idaho 353 617 264 75
West Virginia 414 564 150 36
Missouri 457 459 2 0
Maine 266 397 131 49
Montana 386 386 0 0
Michigan 164 377 213 130
Nebraska 213 337 124 58
Utah 223 325 102 46
Arizona 128 138 10 8
Maryland 70 120 50 72
Ohio 10 112 102 1,024
Hawaii 63 93 30 48
Vermont 6 46 40 673
Massachusetts 18 46 28 155
Tennessee 29 29 - -
New Hampshire 25 26 1 4
Alaska 8 10 2 25
New Jersey 8 8 - -
Rhode Island 1 2 1 140
Delaware 2 2 - -
United States 40,216 46,919 6,703 17
Canada 4,015 5,265 1,250 31
TOTAL 44,231 52,184 7,953 18
WORLD 190,522 228,315 37,793 20
Reductions may be due to statistical adjustment rather than actual
decline in megawatt capacity
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