From expectations of their company’s future performance, their prognosis for the industry and their reaction to policy announcements; Donald Trump is a looming presence whose victory threatens four years of policy backsliding and uncertainty in one of the world’s biggest wind markets.
Company performance
Asked how they expected their company to perform this year compared to 2024, a number of respondents to the survey said they viewed the question through the lens of political uncertainty across key global markets, such as the US and Germany.
“[This year] was expected to be better than 2024, but the political issues in the US may very well impact…results in a negative way,” said one respondent, echoing the opinion of many. Expressed similar feelings, another pointed to “political instability in Germany and France", and an uncertain outcome of green policies in the US under Trump”.
Others looked beyond the geopolitical landscape to the market for their guide to future company performance.
“Market conditions, lack of volume, turbine OEMs' deteriorating financial performance,” were indicators quoted by one person, while another said: “The market [are getting] gets increasingly tougher, with Chinese OEMs and component manufacturing entering the global markets, and the geo-political situation is not in support of renewable energy.”
Rotor blade production in China (pic credit: Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
But some felt more positive about the year ahead.
One respondent pointed to increased activity in England, following the end of the de facto ban for new onshore wind implemented by the new UK government last year.
“Growth of offshore wind in Europe is constant,” said one, while another added: “The perspectives for the wind energy in Brazil are very good.
Industry outlook
The survey asked people to give their prognosis as to whether they thought 2025 would be a good year for the wider wind industry.
A large number of respondents pointed to the election of Donald Trump and his “dislike of renewables and particularly wind” and what that might mean for the industry.
One response, which was typical of many, said: “The industry will take time to recover. Many companies were hoping to revive their prospects on the back of the US market but due to Trump's stance on wind power, will derail and delay the turnaround for many.”
But increased competition from China was also a factor in people’s industry outlook.
“Soft overall US demand, uncertainty with Inflation Reduction Act [in the US] and the Net Zero Industry Act [in the EU], Germany turmoil, Trump impact, inflation and abysmal performance by offshore developers/OEMs along with stiff competition from heavily subsidised Chinese component suppliers,” were all factors causing concern.
Echoing the sentiment of many in the industry, respondent said: “Trump will slow the development of wind sector in US, and Chinese OEMs will push hard on Europeans.”
However, some saw the year ahead through the lens of technology development. One said: “The need is just growing, but the main players are not investing in technologies for floating. A good year would need much more money from deep-pocketed companies into technology that can become commercial.”
Challenges and opportunities
The survey asked people to name the key challenges and opportunities facing the wind industry at this moment. Once again, Trump’s election victory featured strongly among the challenges.
“Trump and his followers who deny climate change and view science as a culture war,” was one typical response on challenges from those surveyed.
A large number of people also identified “unfair” Chinese competition as their greatest challenge, while others pointed to inadequate grid and transmission systems.
On a more positive note, one respondent said the biggest opportunity lay in convincing the public to adopt wind technology and for the industry to demonstrate its value to local economies.
Market potential
Asked to name the single market or region that offered the most potential this year, viewpoints were split. Many said the US still offered the best prospects, despite the election of its anti-wind president. They said it would continue to expand due to former President Joe Biden’s landmark IRA legislation, and that it would offer “sustained demand, even with more uncertainty in the future.”
But an equal number of respondents cited Europe as the region they thought most important for their company, in part due to political uncertainty in the US.
Commenting specifically on offshore wind, one said: “[The] pipeline has been strong, and several developers are focusing on Europe after the US setbacks. Plus, I believe the policy in US will change against the wind industry.”
But China also featured in the replies to the survey. One said: “Annual installations are higher than for any other country and this is set to continue. Market share in Europe and the US…will be hard to further increase. China provides an opportunity.”
The Trump effect
The famously thin-skinned president’s opposition to wind power predates his political career and was first unleashed when he launched a lengthy legal battle with the Scottish government over plans for an offshore wind farm off the Aberdeenshire coast in Scotland, where he had planned to build a flagship gold course. He eventually lost the case in 2019, and was vocal about his hatred of “windmills” during his first term as president (2017-21).
Since the US started offshore wind development in recent years, Trump has claimed, without evidence, that wind power causes cancer, kills birds and even that it drives up the price of bacon.
The survey asked people to give their views on the effect of Trump’s victory on the wind industry and, among those who left comments, the tone of the responses was overwhelmingly negative.
“Mainly a risk for offshore,” said one respondent, echoing the opinion of many. For onshore, the effect would be “neutral”, some believed.
Other respondents concentrated on Trump’s personal attributes in their assessment.
One said: “He has no understanding of how many Republican states have a huge wind power industry.”.
Some of those surveyed boiled their opinion of the 47th president down to a few unflattering words.
Despite only being in office for a little over a month at the time of writing, some were already feeling the effects of Trump’s presidency.
“It is already negative, the question is how negative will it be,” said one of those surveyed.
But other global regions could gain from America’s loss, one respondent offered.
They said: “In the US, the effect will be negative because of his personal vendetta against turbines, but this will be good for other countries in Europe and maybe APAC.”
'Just hot air’
Those surveyed were also asked if Trump’s presidency could have an effect on the global wind industry.
Many were sanguine and said the global energy transition would continue, despite him.
“Even though the US is a big market, it is still only a fraction of the global market,” said one. Another responded: “He'll have no effect on Europe – just hot air, mostly from his mouth.”
But others worried that Trump’s stance on wind power would embolden other world leaders. One said: “The US market is large, and other conservative leaders may use Trump as an example.”
Policy
Respondents were asked to identify the most important current policy trends for the wind industry.
After citing Trump’s victory, many pointed to his intention to roll back former president Biden’s IRA legislation and institute a ban on US offshore wind. “Trump will kill anything that isn’t oil,” one said, while another added: “he has sworn to [raise] tariffs and disabling wind”.
Others looked to the EU’s Net Zero Industry Act as the most important policy plank for wind power, as well as the bloc’s decision to investigate whether Chinese competition with Europe is unfair.
On a single-country level, one respondent pointed to the provision of more money from the UK government for its contract for difference (CfD) mechanism, ahead of the next auction round.
Looking ahead to what they expected from policymakers this year, one of those surveyed, perhaps optimistically, cited an extension of Biden’s IRA legislation.
Another pointed to a looming global trade war and asked: “Will there be tariffs on Chinese turbines [in the] EU and how will China respond?”
Wish list
Some of those surveyed called for direct intervention from the EU to protect its domestic wind industry.
One called for “direct financial support to wind manufacturing in EU and direct incentives to suppliers and OEMs”.
This sentiment was echoed by another respondent who asked for “protective policies for local industry in Europe, similar to the IRA in the US.”
The desire for protectionist policies from the EU was motivated in part by a fear of Chinese competition.
One said: “Set clear boundaries and expectations with China companies ensuring fair competition,” echoing similar sentiments from others.
But others called for the opposite and said: “Open the wind market to Chinese technology, with the proper protection against cyber-risk.”
Misinformation and disinformation
In recent years wind power has been engulfed by a rising tide of misinformation and disinformation, propagated via social media channels. Spurious claims have threatened public acceptance of the technology.
The survey asked whether misinformation and disinformation had affected a wind project they had worked on in the last year, and for many respondents this had indeed been the case
“Misinformation is a global problem, and it affects every wind project,” said one. “Dsinformation about whales is impacting our offshore business,” Another responded
Some participants were specific about how these negative forces were affecting individual countries:
“Some regions in Spain are against wind energy due to misinformation and political confrontation.”
“We've had a very angry mayor in France blaming our wind farm for TV reception issues caused by a shutdown of local receivers, which has nothing to do with us.”
There was also an underlying sense from the responses that those who claim that climate change is not real were behind the “ridiculous lies” levelled at wind power.
“Climate change denial negatively impacts the industry in general and we need to do a better job studying and communicating the impacts of offshore wind,” said one. Another said: “I have come across people…who believe that wind turbines cause cancer.”
A good career choice?
Finally, the survey explored the attitude of people who had made a career from working in the wind industry and whether they would recommend it to others.
Many pointed to the ethical nature of working in an industry that was attempting to curb climate change, a subject close to the heart of many young people.
“It is very technologically challenging and, at the same time, its purpose is to get cleaner energy, to protect the planet and to mitigate global warming,” said one respondent who echoed the thoughts of many others.
As for whether – and why – they intended to continue working in the industry themselves, respondents took a similar line to explain their dedication.
“Because in my personal view of the world and life, the purpose is more important than the wages or the money,” said one, while another said they were “committed to the mission to fight climate change.”
And perhaps thinking of how they might account for their working life one day, a survey respondent summed up their reason in simple terms: “For my children,” they said.
(Main image credit: Getty Images/Emma Austin)
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