The predicts the UK offshore market will grow to 24GW by 2030. Repowering current offshore projects in the UK when required in the late 2020s would "at least double the total size and duration of the market" and make electricity generation cheaper than gas, the report found.
Larger turbines, advances in foundation and cable technologies and a more developed supply chain will also contribute to the industry being able to survive subsidy-free.
Offshore costs could fall to between £53/MWh (€76.1/MWh) and £99/MWh (€142.2/MWh) by 2030 according to the report. It places offshore costs for projects being built this year at between £105/MWh (€150/MWh) and £136/MWh (€195.3/MWh).
The report "Offshore Wind: Delivering More For Less" by consultancy firm BVG Associates was commissioned by Norwegian utility and offshore developer Statkraft.
BVG said more advanced technology would add to the downward pressure of offshore costs, predicting 10MW+ turbines in the early 2020s. Concrete gravity foundations and jacket foundations will compete with monopile designs in deeper water, the report said.
| Year | Turbine Size (MW) | Project Size (GW) | Water depth (metres) | Distance to port/grid (kilometres) | Wind speed at 100-metres (m/s) | Cost of Energy: Offshore Wind (£/MWh) | Cost of Energy: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (£/MWh) |
| 2005 | 2-3 | <0.1 | 15-25 | 10-30 | 8.5-9.0 | 157-192 | 58-77 |
| 2010 | 3-4 | 0.3-0.6 | 25-35 | 10-60 | 9.0-9.5 | 152-190 | 61-92 |
| 2015 | 6-8 | 0.6-0.8 | 20-45 | 20-120 | 9.3-9.7 | 105-136 | 65-102 |
| 2020 | 7-9 | 0.6-1.2 | 30-45 | 50-240 | 9.5-10.0 | 76-110 | 70-110 |
| 2025 | 8-10 | 0.6-1.2 | 30-45 | 50-240 | 9.5-10.2 | 64-104 | 75-117 |
| 2025 (repowered) | 8-10 | 0.2-0.4 | 15-25 | 10-60 | 8.5-9.0 | 64-104 | 75-117 |
| 2030 | 10-12 | 0.6-1.2 | 30-45 | 50-240 | 9.5-10.2 | 53-99 | 76-118 |
| 2030 (repowered) | 10-12 | 0.3-0.6 | 25-30 | 10-60 | 9.0-9.5 | 53-99 | 76-118 |
A more developed supply chain would also help contribute to lowering costs. The report predicts projects being built in the middle of the next decade will have lifetime UK content (including servicing) of approximately 60% — up from around the current 40%.
Statkraft is involved at the 317MW Sheringham Shoal and 402MW Dudgeon offshore projects in the North Sea with compatriot Statoil. In February, it bought a stake in RWE Innogy's 900MW Triton Knoll project. Statkraft is also part of the Forewind consortium developing the 7.2GW Dogger Bank project.
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