Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
Recent weeks have seen additional capacity brought online, contracts awarded and assets changing hands. In the USA, EDF and Masdar announced a PPA with Soluna Holdings, linked to the 273MW Las Majadas Wind in Texas. But in the offshore sector, a key permit for the 2.8GW Atlantic Shores was invalidated. In Brazil, Engie agreed to supply power to Sylvamo, from its 846MW Serra do Assuruá complex. And in Chile, Colbún’s 816MW Horizonte wind farm was inaugurated, while Engie began commercial operations at its 344MW Kallpa.
In Germany, a total of 4,094MW of onshore wind capacity was awarded. In Spain, Schroders Greencoat acquired a 49% stake in a 400MW Repsol portfolio. In Sweden, the 260MW Stor-Skälsjön was fully operational. In Lithuania, Ignitis Renewables agreed to acquire the Nord hybrid project, while in Latvia, Vindr signed agreements for five new wind farm development areas. Elsewhere, Eurowind Energy confirmed that it was looking to develop up to 1.2GW of wind capacity in Romania.
In the offshore sector, Freja Offshore's 2.5GW Mareld project was granted a Natura 2000 permit, while the Highland Council backed the plans for the up to 2GW West of Orkney. Norges Bank Investment Management agreed to acquire 49% stakes in the 1,560MW Nordseecluster and 1,080MW Thor. And Hexicon agreed the sale to Ingka Investments and Oxan Energy of its 50% stakes in the 1.15GW Sicily South and 1.3GW Sardinia Northwest projects. Vattenfall made the final investment decision for Nordlicht 1 and 2. Turbine installation commenced at RWE’s 1.4GW Sofia. Seaway7 began installing the inter-array cables at the site of EnBW’s 960MW He Dreiht. And the 253MW Gode Wind 3 began commercial operations.
In Australia, seven-year feasibility licences were granted for the 1.2GW Spinifex and 2GW Novocastrian projects. But a feasibility licence was denied for Flotation Energy's 1.5GW Seadragon. Onshore, the federal government gave the final go-ahead to three major projects in New South Wales: the 1.3GW Liverpool Range, 700MW Spicers Creek and 372MW Hills of Gold. And Goldwind’s up to 450MW Bashan project was included on the inaugural National Renewable Energy Priority List. In India, NTPC awarded four wind-solar hybrid projects in its 1.2GW auction. In China, construction was under way at the 3GW Santanghu, 3GW Shisanjianfang, 1GW Mulei and 1GW Toksun projects in Xinjiang Province and at the 800MW Dafeng offshore wind complex. In Taiwan, the 640MW Yunlin was officially inaugurated. And CIP reached financial close for Fengmiao I, while Vestas agreed to supply its 33 V236-15.0 MW turbines. Elsewhere, the Bash and Dzhankeldy wind farms in Uzbekistan were newly online. Comprising 158 EN171-6.5MW turbines, together they provide 1GW. And Siemens Gamesa and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company signed an agreement regarding the development of a 500MW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From around 1,150GW at present, we expect the world as a whole to be host to just over 1,811GW of wind capacity by the end of the outlook period.
Asia-Pacific’s 978.3GW will represent a 54% share of this end-2031 global total, while Europe’s 450.6GW will account for a quarter.
North America’s 248.8GW and Central & South America’s 86.8GW will together, account for just under a fifth of the total, with the MEA’s 46.6GW accounting for the remainder.
Europe
From around 275GW at present, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore capacity having reached just under 451GW by the end of 2031.
Germany’s onshore total is expected to have topped 81GW by the end of the outlook period, while its end-2031 offshore total is forecast at just under 28GW.
In Spain, further onshore capacity growth should see its end-2031 total having reached just under 41GW, while almost 4GW is expected to be in place offshore.
In the UK, the end-2031 onshore total is forecast at just over 26GW, while UK waters are expected to be host to around 42GW by then.
And in France, the on- and offshore totals are expected to have reached 33.3GW and 5GW by the end of the outlook period.
North America
From just over 180GW at present, we expect to see North America being host to around 250GW by the end of the outlook period.
In the USA, the end-2031 onshore total is expected to have topped 203GW, with Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas combined expected to account for half of this. But further doubts over the prospects for the US offshore sector mean we have adjusted further, our end-2031 forecast for installed capacity in US waters. We now expect to see around 13GW being in place by then.
In Canada, we foresee the capacity total having topped 23GW by the end of the outlook period, with much of the incremental capacity materialising in provinces other than Ontario and Quebec.
And in Mexico, we expect to see just under 9GW being in place by 2031.
Asia-Pacific*
By the end of the outlook period, we expect to see the Asia-Pacific region being host to around 978GW of wind capacity.
China alone will account for around 730GW onshore and 83GW offshore by then. And in India, growth to just under 74GW is forecast.
In Australia, capacity is expected to approximately double over the outlook period, reaching around 24GW by 2031.
In Japan, growth to around 14GW is forecast, with around 5GW of this being offshore. Further growth in Vietnam’s on- and offshore sectors is also expected, as well as in South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors.
Central & South America
Our forecasts for Central & South America are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect the region to be host to around 87GW by the end of the outlook period.
Brazil’s capacity is forecast to have topped 54GW by the end of 2031, while Chile’s total is expected to have reached 16GW. This, despite some project cancellations having been announced in Chile.
Elsewhere in the region, we foresee Argentina’s end-2031 capacity having reached just over 7GW, while Uruguay’s is expected to have edged up to 1.8GW by then.
Between them, the ‘others’ in the region are expected to account for around 7.3GW of capacity by 2031.
Middle East & Africa
From 25GW at present, we continue to expect to see the Middle East & Africa’s total installed capacity having reached almost 47GW by the end of the outlook period.
Turkey’s total is expected to have reached around 19GW by the end of 2031, South Africa’s, 5.9GW and Morocco’s, 7GW.
Egypt’s total should have topped 6GW by then, while the ‘others’ in the region combined will account for just over 8GW by 2031.