Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
February saw further retrenchment in the US offshore sector. Although the New York State Public Service Commission approved the 810MW Empire Wind 1’s transmission facilities, BP withdrew its application for the 2.5GW Beacon Wind’s interconnection. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities stated that it would not proceed with an award in the fourth offshore wind solicitation. And Vineyard Offshore laid off 50 workers, citing “market uncertainties.” In Canada, turbine installation was completed at Acciona Energía’s 280MW Forty Mile Wind. And in Chile, wpd was looking to progress up to 1GW of wind capacity to power the production of green hydrogen. But Statkraft announced its exit from the Vientos del Desierto development.
Amazon and Iberdrola signed 476MW of PPAs linked to wind and solar plants in Portugal and Spain. NeXtWind secured contracts for a 200MW portfolio in Germany, while in Serbia, five wind projects were successful in the second wind and solar auction. In Scotland, applications were submitted for the 92.4MW Blair Hill and up to 64.8MW Balnespick. And in Sweden, a permit application was submitted for the up to twelve-turbine Humletorp.
In the offshore sector, Norway’s Ministry of Energy cancelled plans to auction the Sørvest F site. SSE, APG and TenneT signed a realisation agreement for the 2GW IJmuiden Ver Alpha’s grid connection. OX2 announced that the up to 160-turbine Halla’s EIA report had been completed, while construction was progressing at the 1.14GW Baltic Power. Van Oord was contracted to install seabed protection for the 1,440MW Bałtyk 2 and 3. Applications were submitted for the 1,350MW Cenos and the up to 824MW Dublin Array. Granada Cranes agreed to supply the 1,080MW Inch Cape. And Enefit Green agreed to sell a 50% stake in the 1GW Liivi Bay to Sumitomo.
In Australia, plans were announced for an up to 2.5GW project off Western Australia. But Oceanex Energy abandoned its plans for a 2GW development. WestWind Energy's 1.5GW Cameron Downs Energy Park in Queensland entered the federal approval process, while the developer and the New South Wales government agreed a lease for the 1GW Lake Victoria. Elsewhere, ACWA Power and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) signed a 25-year PPA, linked to a 2GW wind project. An agreement was signed by Chitchareune Construction, to develop the two-phase, 1.2GW Nong wind farm in Laos. The 600MW Lingao off Hainan, China, was brought online. In the Taiwan Strait, the 640MW Yunlin was fully operational, while Ørsted announced the start of offshore construction at the 920MW Greater Changhua 2b and 4. And in India, Suzlon agreed to supply turbines to Oyster Renewable, for a 201.6MW project in Madhya Pradesh. But in Sri Lanka, Adani Green Energy withdrew from the 286MW Mannar and 234MW Pooneryn projects.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 1,132.5GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to around 1,813GW of wind capacity by the end of the outlook period.
Asia-Pacific’s 976.7GW will account for just over half of this, with Europe’s 452.7GW accounting for a quarter. The Americas’ 337.1GW will account for almost a fifth and the Middle East & Africa’s 46.8GW, the remainder.
Europe
From just over 273GW at the end of 2024, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having reached just under 453GW by the end of 2031.
Germany’s onshore total is expected to have topped 81GW by then, with its offshore total tipped to have reached almost 29GW.
Spain’s end-2031 onshore total is forecast at just under 41GW, while just under 4GW of offshore capacity should have materialised in Spanish waters by then.
In the UK, on- and offshore capacity growth should see its totals having reached 26GW and 42GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period.
And in France, the end-2031 onshore total is expected to have topped 33GW, with the offshore total set to have reached just over 5GW.
North America
From an estimated 179.9GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see North America’s total installed wind capacity having topped 250GW by the end of the outlook period.
In the USA, the end-2031 onshore total is forecast at just over 203GW, with Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas combined expected to account for half of this. But in the offshore sector, project delays mean we have further downgraded our forecasts and we now expect to see less than 15GW having been installed in US waters by the end of the outlook period.
In Canada, we foresee growth from 17.7GW, to just over 23GW by the end of 2031. And in Mexico, total installed capacity is expected to have edged up to just under 9GW by then.
Asia-Pacific*
Having raised our incremental capacity forecasts for China and India, we now expect to see the Asia-Pacific region being host to just over 977GW of wind capacity by the end of 2031.
In China, we foresee onshore capacity having topped 727GW by the end of the outlook period, with the offshore total having reached around 82GW.
In India, we expect to see growth to just under 74GW by 2031. And in Australia, we are forecasting a doubling of capacity over the 2025-31 period, to just under 25GW.
Elsewhere, we continue to forecast steady growth in Japan’s and Vietnam’s onshore sectors, as well as more rapid growth in their nascent offshore sectors.
South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors, meanwhile, are also expected to see robust growth in the outlook period, with their totals set to have reached around 10GW and 13GW respectively by the end of 2031.
Central & South America
From an estimated 48.8GW at the end of 2024, we foresee Central and South America’s total installed capacity having reached 87GW by the end of 2031.
Brazil alone will account for around half of the region’s incremental capacity, with its end-2031 total expected to have topped 54GW.
In Chile, installed capacity is forecast to triple over the outlook period, to just over 16GW. And in Argentina, growth from 4.2GW to 7.1GW is expected.
Elsewhere, only modest growth is expected in Uruguay, while the ‘other’ countries in the region combined are expected to be host to just over 7GW by 2031.
Middle East & Africa
From an upwardly revised 25GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see the MEA region’s total capacity having reached just under 47GW by the end of 2031.
Turkey will account for just over 5GW of the region’s 2025-31 incremental capacity, taking its total to 19GW by the end of the outlook period.
South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s totals are expected to have reached 5.7GW, 7GW and 6.2GW respectively by the end of 2031, while the ‘others’ in the region combined will account for just under 9GW by then.