Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
The initial weeks of 2025 saw a flurry of activity in many of the world’s major wind markets. In the USA, a Presidential Memorandum was issued, regarding the temporary withdrawal of offshore wind leasing of all areas on the USA’s Outer Continental Shelf. And Shell announced its withdrawal from the Atlantic Shores project. Nevertheless, the Maryland PSC approved US Wind’s rebid application and awarded the company additional ORECs to support the buildout of its projects. Onshore, commercial operations were under way at Innergex’s 330MW Boswell Springs in Wyoming. And Apex Clean Energy agreed to supply Great River Energy from its 300MW Big Bend in Minnesota. But a temporary moratorium was placed on Magic Valley Energy’s development of Lava Ridge in Idaho. And in Brazil, COPEL and Voltalia agreed a five-year maintenance contract, covering 940MW in Rio Grande do Norte.
In Ukraine, DTEK secured €370m for its 384MW Tyligulska II project, while Vestas agreed to supply its turbines. In Sweden, Statkraft and Suomen Voima signed a 15-year PPA. And in Finland, the 236MW Siikajoki was newly online. In Germany, Qualitas Energy acquired a 250MW portfolio, while NeXtWind acquired 12 wind farms from Nadara and Caeli Wind was seeking investors for the 212MW Everest. In the offshore sector, Aker Solutions received the full notice to proceed from RWE, at the 2.8GW Norfolk Vanguard West and East. Germany’s Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency determined that two further areas in the North Sea were suitable sites for offshore wind energy. EEW SPC was contracted to supply the 1.6GW Nordlicht 1 and 2’s monopiles. Ørsted and PGE took a final investment decision (FID) on their 1.5GW Baltica 2 project, while DeepOcean was awarded a subsea survey contract at the 1.44GW Bałtyk 2 and 3. ESB and Red Rock Renewables achieved financial close for their 1,080MW Inch Cape project. Turbine installation was completed at the 913MW Borkum Riffgrund 3. And Oxan Energy was successful in the first Estonian floating offshore wind tender and with its partner SNOW, will develop the up to 900MW Saare 1.
In Turkey, offtake agreements for 1.2GW were awarded through an auction. In Australia, Cubico submitted proposals for the up to 700MW Marmadua Energy Park and the up to 1.45GW Middle Creek Energy Hub, while Windlab’s 800MW Prairie was approved. In India, Envision Energy agreed to supply 200 EN 182 5MW turbines to Juniper Green Energy and Suzlon secured a 486MW order from Torrent Power. In China, 790MW was approved in Ningxia. Meanwhile, PowerChina signed an EPC contract with Suez Wind Energy, for 1.1GW in Egypt and Envision agreed to supply the project’s 138 x 8MW turbines. And AMEA Power signed the Investment Agreement for a 1GW project in Uzbekistan.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an upwardly revised estimated total of just over 1,131GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see total global installed wind capacity having reached almost 1,808GW by the end of 2031.
Asia-Pacific’s 967.6GW will account for more than half (53%) of this forecast total, with Europe’s 454.7GW accounting for a quarter.
Between them, North America and Central & South America will account for just under a fifth of the end-2031 global total and the Middle East & Africa, the remainder.
Europe
From an estimated 274GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having reached just under 455GW by 2031.
Germany’s end-2031 onshore total is forecast at 81.5GW, while its waters are expected to be host to around 29GW by then.
Around 10GW of incremental onshore capacity is expected to materialise in Spain over the outlook period, taking its end-2031 total to 41GW.
In the UK, further growth in both on- and offshore capacity should see its end-2031 totals having reached 26GW and 41GW, respectively.
And in France, the end-2031 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 33.1GW and 5.7GW.
North America
From an estimated 178.8GW at the end of 2024, we foresee North America being host to just over 252GW by the end of 2031.
In the USA, there is expected to be around 220GW in place by the end of the outlook period, around 16GW of which will be offshore.
Between them, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore wind capacity, with their end-2031 totals forecast at 58.4GW, 17.5GW, 15.4GW and 10.7GW.
In Canada, total installed capacity is expected to have topped 23GW by the end of the outlook period, while in Mexico, around 9GW should be in place by 2031.
Asia-Pacific*
From an upwardly revised end-2024 estimated total of 605.5GW, we expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total having topped 967GW by the end of 2031.
China alone will account for almost 802GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals forecast to have reached 723.3GW and 78.4GW by then.
India’s total is expected to have reached just under 71GW by 2031, while Australia’s is expected to have doubled by then, to 25.7GW.
Elsewhere in the region, further growth is expected in Japan’s and Vietnam’s on- and offshore sectors. And South Korea and Taiwan are each expected to add around 10GW of offshore capacity, over the 2025-31 period.
Central & South America
From an upwardly revised end-2024 estimated total of 48.8GW, we expect to see Central and South America being host to just over 87GW by the end of the outlook period.
We foresee Brazil adding around 30GW between 2025 and 2031, taking its total to 54.4GW. In Chile, we expect to see around 11GW of incremental capacity, with its total tipped to have reached 16.6GW by the end of the outlook period.
Argentina, Uruguay and the ‘others’ in the region, meanwhile, are forecast to be host to 7.1GW, 1.8GW and 7.4GW respectively, by the end of 2031.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 24.3GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see the MEA region’s total installed capacity having almost doubled by the end of 2031, to 46.1GW.
Just over 5GW is expected to be added in Turkey over the outlook period, taking its end-2031 total to 18.3GW.
In South Africa, Morocco and Egypt, we foresee growth to 5.7GW, 7GW and 6.2GW respectively by 2031, while the ‘others’ in the region combined are expected to be host to 8.9GW by then.