Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
The final weeks of 2024 saw activity continuing apace. In the USA, the Bureau of Land Management approved the 241-turbine Lava Ridge in Idaho. Vestas agreed to supply Invenergy’s 342MW Alle-Catt Wind in New York. And Apex Clean Energy closed financing for the 300MW Prosperity Wind in Illinois. Meanwhile, the BOEM issued a Determination of Competitive Interest in two Wind Energy Areas in the Gulf of Mexico and approved the Construction and Operations Plan for up to 2.2GW off Maryland. In Canada, nine onshore projects with a combined capacity of 1.5GW were approved. And in Chile, Repsol was seeking permits for a 462MW second stage of its Antofagasta wind farm..
Activity also remained brisk in Europe, where 4GW was awarded in the German onshore tender. And in Romania, the energy ministry awarded 15-year CfDs for 1,096MW at 10 wind farms. Elsewhere, TotalEnergies agreed to acquire VSB Group for €1.57bn. In Portugal, Iberdrola obtained the production licence for its 274MW Tâmega Norte and Tâmega Sul. In Sweden, Polhem Infra and Prime Capital agreed to partner on a 265MW portfolio. And in Scotland, SSE took a final investment decision on its 208MW Strathy South project.
In the offshore sector, the Danish auction failed to attract a single bidder, with three sites in the North Sea having been made available. But European Energy received the construction permit for the 240MW Jammerland Bugt. BP and JERA agreed to combine their offshore wind businesses. And the Sheringham Shoal and Dudgeon extension projects were set to be progressed as a joint 719MW development. Meanwhile, Vestas received a firm and unconditional order for ESB’s and Red Rock Renewables’ 1.1GW Inch Cape. The EIA for Enefit Green’s 1GW Liivi Bay was completed. Consent applications were submitted for the up to 1GW Muir Mhòr. Nexans agreed to supply cable to ScottishPower Renewables’ 960MW East Anglia TWO. And RTE awarded a framework agreement to Jan De Nul, in partnership with Hellenic Cables, to supply and install export cables for two floating wind farms off Brittany with a total capacity of 750MW.
In Australia, nineteen renewables projects that together will provide 6.4GW were chosen as part of the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS). In China, the 314MW Changle Waihai I off Fuzhou was given the go-ahead and the 300MW Zhanjiang Xuwen extension off Guangdong was brought online. In India, Suzlon agreed to supply a further 96 S144 turbines, each of which will provide 3.15MW, to Jindal Renewables. In South Korea, LS Cable & System was in line to supply the 1.5GW Haewoori Offshore Wind and 504MW Taean. Ørsted agreed the sale to Cathay Life of a 50% stake in the 583MW Greater Changhua 4 in the Taiwan Strait. And In Uzbekistan, Masdar inaugurated the 500MW Zarafshan.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 1,120GW at the end of 2024, our initial forecast for total global wind capacity by the end of 2031 is 1,797GW.
Asia-Pacific, with just under 958GW, is expected to account for just over half of this total, while Europe’s 455GW will account for a quarter.
The Americas’ 338GW will account for almost one fifth and the MEA’s 46GW, the remainder.
Europe
From an estimated 274.5GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 455GW by the end of 2031.
Germany’s onshore total is expected to have reached almost 82GW by then, while its waters should be host to 29GW.
In Spain, further growth should see its onshore total having topped 41GW by 2031, while 2.8GW is expected to be in place offshore.
The UK’s end-2031 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 26GW and 41.1GW respectively, while France’s are expected to have reached 33.2GW and 5.7GW.
North America
From an estimated 178.6GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see North America’s total installed wind capacity having reached almost 253GW by the end of 2031.
The USA alone will account for just over 220GW of this, with its onshore total expected to have reached around 203GW and its offshore total, almost 18GW.
On a state-by-state basis, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore total, with their end-2031 totals expected to have reached 57.9GW, 17.3GW, 15.4GW and 10.7GW, respectively.
In Canada, growth to just over 23GW is forecast by the end of the outlook period, while Mexico’s end-2031 total is expected to have reached around 9GW.
Asia-Pacific*
From an upwardly revised estimate of 595GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see Asia-Pacific being host to just over 957GW of on- and offshore wind capacity by the end of 2031.
China’s end-2031 onshore total is forecast at around 710GW, its offshore total, almost 80GW. India is forecast to be host to just over 70GW by then, while Australia’s total is expected to have topped 28GW.
In Japan, growth in both the on- and offshore sectors should see its totals having reached 8.8GW and 5.6GW by the end of the outlook period, while in Vietnam, similar growth should see 7.2GW onshore and 5.4GW offshore being in place by then.
Elsewhere, strong growth in South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors should see their totals having reached just under 10GW and 13GW respectively, by the end of the outlook period.
Central & South America
By the end of 2031, we foresee Central & South America being host to 85.7GW. This would represent growth from the current estimated total of 47.6GW.
Brazil will account for around half of this forecast incremental capacity, with its total expected to have topped 53GW by the end of the outlook period.
Around 11GW will be added in Chile between 2025 and 2031, taking its total to 16.5GW, while Argentina’s end-2031 total is expected to have topped 7GW.
Modest growth in Uruguay should see its total having edged up to 1.8GW by 2031, while the ‘others’ in the region are expected to be host to just over 7GW by then.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 24.3GW at the end of 2024, we expect to see the MEA region’s total installed wind capacity having almost doubled by 2031, to 46GW.
Around 5GW is forecast to be added in Turkey over the outlook period, taking its total to just over 18GW.
Growth in South Africa, Morocco and Egypt will see their totals having reached 5.7GW, 7GW and 6.2GW respectively by the end of 2031.
And the other countries in the region combined are expected to have installed almost 9GW by then. They currently host an estimated 3.3GW.