Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
November saw new capacity brought online, projects approved, assets changing hands and contracts being signed. But in the USA, Trump’s victory in the presidential election cast doubt over the prospects for the development of US offshore wind capacity. Indeed, TotalEnergies put its Attentive Energy project on hold. Nevertheless, the BOEM made available the final EIS for the up to 2.4GW SouthCoast Wind and opened a 90-day comment period on the California draft PEIS. Onshore, Innergex announced the completion of its 329.8MW Boswell Springs in Wyoming. And in Texas, JERA’s 300MW El Sauz began commercial operations.
Activity remained brisk in Europe. In France, power deals were awarded to more than 750MW of new onshore wind projects. In Sweden, Danske Commodities agreed to provide market access and balancing services at the 277MW Kölvallen. Elsewhere, PPC completed its acquisition of Evryo Group’s 629MW Romanian portfolio. And Masdar completed the acquisition of a 70% stake in Terna Energy. In the offshore sector, the Swedish Government gave the go-ahead for the 1.4GW Poseidon, but plans for 13 Baltic Sea projects were rejected. In the UK, outline planning permission was granted for the 4.1GW Berwick Bank’s onshore transmission infrastructure, while an electricity generation licence was granted to the 3GW MarramWind and permitting was under way for the 2GW Caledonia. The 1.5GW Hollandse Kust Zuid was fully operational. And in France, 12 organisations were shortlisted to participate in the next offshore wind tender.
In Turkey, Enercon signed a letter of intent with Iş Enerji and Polat Enerji, regarding 2.5GW of onshore wind capacity. And in Egypt, Envision was in line to supply turbines to ACWA Power’s 1.1GW Suez Wind Energy project. In Australia, plans were unveiled for a 70GW renewable energy hub and CIP launched Voyager Renewables. Offshore, a number of changes were announced for the up to 2.2GW Star of the South, including a reduction in the maximum number of turbines, while BlueFloat Energy’s up to 2.1GW Gippsland Dawn was granted Major Project Status. In Taiwan, administrative contracts were submitted for five planned offshore wind farms that together, will provide 2.7GW. CIP and Sino American Silicon signed a CPPA linked to the 500MW Fengmiao 1. And Synera Renewable Energy secured the Establishment Permit for its 495MW Formosa 4 project. It also formed a joint venture with Moondo Wind Energy, to develop an 804MW wind farm off South Korea. Meanwhile, Hexicon’s acquisition of the 1,125MW MunmuBaram was approved. Elsewhere, Masdar signed an MoU with SOCAR Green and ACWA Power, regarding 3.5GW of offshore wind capacity in the Caspian Sea off Azerbaijan. Masdar also signed an agreement with Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy, to develop a 1GW wind farm in Mingbulak, while Masdar and its partners signed the Investment Agreement for their 1GW project in Kazakhstan.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 1,093GW at present, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to just over 1,677GW by the end of the outlook period.
Asia-Pacific’s 883.7GW will account for just over half of this, with Europe’s 414.3GW accounting for a further quarter.
North America, with 251GW, will account for one seventh of the end-2030 global total, with Central and South America’s 84GW and the Middle East and Africa’s 44.2GW accounting for the remainder.
Europe
From an estimated 271.7GW at present, we expect to see Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having reached 414.3GW by the end of 2030.
This downwardly revised forecast largely reflects our expectation that growth in Denmark’s offshore sector will be slower than previously expected, following the failure of the recent auction to attract any bids. At least 3GW was made available at sites in the North Sea, but we now expect delays to this capacity coming online.
In Germany, we expect to see around 79.5GW of onshore capacity being in place by 2030, with just under 26GW having been installed offshore.
In the UK and France, further growth in their onshore sectors should see 26.5GW and 31.1GW in place by 2030, while their waters should be host to 32.1GW and 6GW by then.
And in Spain, we foresee further growth in onshore capacity, to 37.6GW by 2030, with 2.2GW of offshore capacity also expected to have materialised by the end of the outlook period.
North America
Our forecasts for the region as a whole are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect to see around 251GW being in place by the end of the outlook period.
The USA’s onshore total is expected to have topped 205GW by then, with Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas collectively accounting for around half of that. Offshore, we foresee around 13GW being in place by the end of 2030.
We expect to see Canada’s total having topped 23GW by the end of 2030, with most of the capacity growth set to occur outside of Ontario and Quebec. And in Mexico, we foresee growth to just under 10GW by the end of the outlook period.
Asia-Pacific*
Our forecasts for Asia-Pacific are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect the region’s total on- and offshore wind capacity to have topped 883GW by 2030.
China alone will account for over four-fifths of this, with its end-2030 on- and offshore totals set to have reached just over 654GW and 74.5GW.
In India, we foresee growth to around 63GW by 2030, while Australia’s total is tipped to have reached almost 27GW by then.
Elsewhere, further growth in Japan’s on- and offshore sectors should see its totals having topped 8GW and 5GW by the end of the outlook period. And similar growth in Vietnam should see it being host to around 6GW, in each of the on- and offshore sectors by the end of 2030.
Central & South America
By the end of 2030, we expect to see around 84GW of installed wind capacity in Central & South America.
Brazil alone will account for just over 50GW of this and Chile, 16GW. Argentina’s end-2030 total is expected to have topped 6GW, while slower growth in Uruguay will see its total having edged up to 1.8GW by then.
The ‘others’ in the region combined, meanwhile, will account for around 10GW by the end of the outlook period.
Middle East & Africa
By the end of 2030, we foresee the Middle East and Africa’s total installed wind capacity having topped 44GW. Turkey will account for around 18GW of this, South Africa for just over 6GW and Morocco, 6.8GW.
Egypt, meanwhile, is expected to be host to 5GW by the end of the outlook period. This upwardly revised forecast reflects Voltalia’s signing of an MoU with Egypt’s Ministry of Electricity, regarding the repowering of the 545MW Zafarana wind farms. Their capacity will be doubled, as part of a redevelopment of the site into a hybrid renewable energy facility, with initial commissioning planned for 2028.