Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
October saw no let up in the pace of activity in many of the world’s main wind markets. In the USA, four areas in the Gulf of Maine were awarded. Collectively, they could host around 6.8GW of floating capacity. Dominion Energy filed its 2024 Integrated Resource Plan, which included plans for 3.4GW of new offshore capacity. It also closed the sale to Stonepeak of a 50% stake in the 2.6GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, while Avangrid closed the sale of the Kitty Hawk North lease area to Dominion Energy. The BOEM completed a review of six areas in the New York Bight and approved the 2.8GW Atlantic Shores South’s Construction and Operations Plan. And Community Offshore Wind submitted its 2.8GW proposal for providing power to New York, while Ørsted submitted its proposed up to 1,485MW Long Island Wind. Onshore, Nova Clean Energy was progressing 1GW of projects in Texas.
Activity remained brisk in Europe too. Statkraft announced a refocus of its strategy. EDP completed the buyback of a 49% stake in a 970MW portfolio. And Hydro agreed to a settlement regarding the PPA with Markbygden Ett in Sweden. In the offshore sector, plans were unveiled for 9GW in French waters. TotalEnergies agreed to acquire 50% stakes in RWE’s 2GW N-9.1 and 2GW N-9.2 projects. And Equinor acquired a 9.8% stake in Ørsted, while Brookfield agreed to acquire 12.45% stakes in four of Ørsted’s UK assets. A generation licence application was filed for the up to 1.5GW Stromar. The EIB and Elia signed a €650m agreement, backing the first phase of the Princess Elisabeth Island project. It would integrate 3.5GW of new offshore capacity into the Belgian grid. And the Danish Energy Agency granted an offshore construction permit for RWE’s 1GW Thor.
In Turkey, the renewable energy roadmap for 2035 was outlined and the 1.2GW YEKA RES-2024 competition announcement was published. In Morocco, a preliminary land reservation contract was signed for the Chbika project, which will include 1GW of wind and solar capacity. In China, construction of the 1.3GW Emin and 1GW Hexigten Banner was under way and the 1GW Santanghu was newly online. In Australia, Fugro agreed to undertake a floating lidar measurement campaign for Ørsted’s planned Gippsland projects. Onshore, community drop-in sessions were held for TAG Energy’s planned 2GW The Pines and OX2 acquired an early-stage 1GW project. In The Philippines, 4GW of planned offshore capacity was granted fast-track permitting. And in South Korea, KF Wind secured a 1,125MW Transmission Service Agreement. Elsewhere, ACWA Power signed a Letter of Interest with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, regarding the 1.5GW Kungrad projects in Uzbekistan. And Sany Renewable Energy announced that it had recently signed turbine sales agreements totaling 1,324MW in India.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 1,081.4GW at present, our revised forecasts reflect our expectation that total global wind capacity will have reached just under 1,680GW by the end of 2030. This is around 6GW down on our expectation of a month ago, following Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the strong likelihood of there being an adverse impact on the development of US offshore capacity.
Asia Pacific, with 883.5GW, will account for just over half of the end-2030 global total, while Europe’s 417.9GW will account for a quarter. The Americas’ 334.4GW will account for a fifth and the MEA’s 43.5GW, the remainder.
Europe
We expect to see Europe’s on- and offshore total having reached around 418GW by the end of 2030.
In Germany, we foresee the onshore total having topped 79GW by then, while German waters are expected to be host to just over 26GW.
In Spain, further growth in the onshore sector is expected to see around 37.8GW being in place by 2030, with a further 2.4GW expected to have been installed offshore.
In the UK, the end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 26.5GW and 32.5GW, while France’s are expected to have reached 31.3GW and 6GW.
Elsewhere, the refusal of a number of early stage Swedish Baltic Sea projects is not expected to have an impact on Sweden’s offshore capacity total until the 2030s and we still expect to see some modest capacity growth in the coming years.
North America
Trump’s victory in the presidential election is expected to have a significant adverse impact on the outlook for the USA’s wind sector, largely in the offshore sector, where we expect to see project delays and cancellations over the longer term. We have revised downwards our end-2030 forecast accordingly.
Onshore, our outlook for the USA is unchanged for now, pending further clarity on policy developments. And on a state-by-state basis, we continue to expect to see Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas hosting around half of the USA’s onshore capacity by 2030, with their totals set to have reached 57.8GW, 17.3GW, 15.2GW and 11.5GW respectively by then.
In Canada, we foresee total installed capacity having topped 23GW by the end of the outlook period. And in Mexico, we are forecasting growth to just under 10GW.
Asia-Pacific*
For Asia-Pacific as a whole, we continue to expect to see robust capacity growth over the outlook period, with total on- and offshore capacity expected to have topped 883GW by the end of 2030.
In China, we expect to see 653.7GW onshore by then and 74.5GW offshore. India’s end-2030 total is forecast at 62.7GW and Australia’s, 27.1GW.
Further growth in Japan’s on- and offshore sectors should see its totals having reached 8.2GW and 5.3GW by the end of 2030, while similar growth in Vietnam should see around 6GW installed in each of its on- and offshore sectors.
Elsewhere, we continue to forecast strong growth in both Taiwan’s and South Korea’s offshore sectors, with their totals expected to have reached 11.5GW and 9.5GW by the end of the outlook period.
Central & South America
Our forecasts for Central & South America are largely unchanged from a month ago and we continue to expect to see the region being host to just over 83GW by the end of the outlook period.
Brazil will account for just over 50GW of this and Chile, 15.6GW. Argentina’s total will be just under 6GW by the end of 2030, while Uruguay’s will have edged up to 1.8GW. Between them, the region’s ‘others’ will account for 10GW by then.
Middle East & Africa
For the Middle East & Africa, we foresee total installed capacity having reached 43.5GW by the end of the outlook period.
In Turkey, growth to just over 18GW is forecast, while South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s end-2030 totals are expected to have reached 6GW, 6.8GW and 4.3GW respectively.