Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
September saw new capacity being brought online, assets changing hands and contracts being signed. In the USA, BP was set to sell its onshore wind energy business and Macquarie agreed to acquire a minority stake in DESRI. In Arizona, Coconino County backed RWE’s 323MW Forged Ethic. In Nebraska, EDF and Omaha Public Power District signed a 20-year PPA, linked to the 300MW Milligan 1. And in Texas, Enel signed a 12-year PPA with Tate & Lyle, linked to the 263MW Ranchland. Elsewhere, up to 2.2GW was approved off Maryland. An offshore wind energy lease sale was scheduled for 29 October, for eight areas off Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, but that for Oregon was delayed. Meanwhile, Vestas agreed to supply 54 V236-15.0 MW turbines to the 810MW Empire Wind 1 and turbine installation commenced at the 704MW Revolution Wind. And in Chile, Colbún’s 812MW Horizonte wind farm began delivering power.
In Germany, power deals were awarded to 230 onshore projects, of 2,723MW combined capacity. In Norway, a public hearing process commenced for the 800MW Oksefjorden and 600MW Rubbedalshøgda projects. Elsewhere, Masdar agreed to acquire Saeta Yield from Brookfield and with it, wind and solar assets in Spain and Portugal. And Alcazar Energy announced the launch of the 400MW Shtip project in North Macedonia. In the offshore sector, an application was submitted for the 1.3GW Codling. Vestas signed a conditional order agreement for the 1.1GW Inch Cape. Aker Solutions was awarded a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) contract, linked to the 2.8GW Med Wind, while Ramboll won a FEED contract at the 2GW West of Orkney. The first phase of public consultation for the 900MW Spiorad na Mara commenced. Iberdrola inaugurated the 496MW Saint-Brieuc. And an Offshore Wind Roadmap for Romania was published.
In China, the 300MW Qingshuihe in Inner Mongolia was newly online. And China Datang received approval to build three 500MW wind farms in Ningxia Province. In India, Suzlon announced a 1,166MW order from NTPC Green Energy. A subsidiary of Calcutta Electric Supply Corporation (CESC) signed an agreement with Ecoren Energy, for the development of an up to 686.85MW wind project. Inox Wind received a Letter of Intent from Igrel Renewables, for the execution on a turnkey basis of 550MW of wind capacity at sites in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. And SECI invited proposals for developing the 500MW Gujarat offshore wind farm. In Australia, the Minister for Climate Change and Energy made a preliminary decision to grant a feasibility licence for the up to 1.2GW Spinifex offshore wind farm. Elsewhere, EDF acquired the rights to a 1.5GW project off South Korea. And the Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) launched a tender for 4.5GW of renewable energy projects, including the 1.5GW Dawadmi wind farm.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
For the world as a whole and from an estimated 1,072.5GW at present, we still expect to see just over 1,685GW of on- and offshore wind capacity being in place by 2030.
With around 883GW, Asia-Pacific will account for just over half of this, Europe’s 418GW for a quarter and the Americas’ 340.6GW, for a fifth. The Middle East and Africa’s 43.8GW will account for the remainder.
Europe
From an estimated 268.2GW at present, we still expect to see Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 418GW by the end of 2030.
Germany’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 79.6GW and 26.2GW, the UK’s, 26.4GW and 32.7GW.
Further growth in Spain will see its onshore total having reached almost 38GW by the end of the outlook period, while its waters are expected to be host to around 2.4GW by then.
And in France, growth in its on- and offshore sectors will see its end-2030 totals having reached 31.3GW and 5.8GW.
North America
We still expect to see North America’s total installed wind capacity having topped 257GW by the end of 2030.
The USA’s total is forecast at just over 225GW, of which around 19GW will be offshore. Between them, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore capacity, with their end-2030 totals expected to have reached 57.9GW, 17.3GW, 15.2GW and 11.5GW.
Our upwardly revised forecast for the ‘other’ states reflects our expectation that RWE’s 323MW Forged Ethic in Arizona will come online towards the end of the outlook period, with the Coconino County Planning and Zoning Commission having recently backed it.
In Canada, we continue to foresee total capacity having reached around 23GW by 2030. And in Mexico, we expect to see just under 10GW being in place by then.
Asia-Pacific*
For the region as a whole, we expect to see around 883GW of on- and offshore wind capacity being in place by the end of the outlook period.
China’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 653.1GW and 74.5GW. India’s total is expected to have reached around 63GW and Australia’s, 27GW.
Elsewhere, growth in Japan’s on- and offshore sectors should see its totals having topped 8GW and 5GW by 2030. And in Vietnam, around 6GW onshore and 6GW offshore should be in place by then.
Meanwhile, strong growth in South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors is also expected over the outlook period, with a combined 21GW expected to be in place by 2030.
Central & South America
Our forecasts for Central & South America are unchanged and we still expect to see the region’s total installed wind capacity having topped 83GW by the end of the outlook period.
With just over 50GW, Brazil will account for three-fifths of this end-2030 total, while Chile’s total is expected to have reached 15.6GW by then.
Argentina’s and Uruguay’s 2030 totals are forecast at 5.9GW and 1.8GW, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for just under 10GW between them by then.
Middle East & Africa
Our forecasts for the MEA region are unchanged from a month ago and we still expect it to be host to almost 44GW by the end of the outlook period. This would represent growth from the current total of 23.3GW.
Turkey’s 2030 total is forecast at 18.3GW, with South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s are expected to have reached 6GW, 6.8GW and 4.5GW respectively. And between them, the ‘others’ in the region will be host to just over 8GW.
Download the report: Global Forecast October 2024