Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
August saw no let up in activity. In the USA, Avangrid announced that its total installed onshore wind and solar capacity had topped 9GW. LS Power agreed to acquire Algonquin Power & Utilities’ renewables business. Two leases were awarded in the Central Atlantic zone. And the 50th foundation was installed at Dominion Energy’s 2.6GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project. In Canada, the 495MW Buffalo Plains delivered its first power to the Alberta grid. In Brazil, the Government of Rio Grande do Sul signed a letter of intent, backing the 400.5MW Três Divisas complex. And in Chile, 17 Energy & SC Power announced their Viento Azul Biobío (VAB) consortium.
Activity also remained brisk in Europe, where the UK’s total on- and offshore capacity topped the 30GW mark, as the 443MW Viking became fully operational. In the Netherlands, the 339MW Windplanblauw was opened. In Germany, Enercon agreed to supply 330MW of turbines to the Bals/SelzEnergie group. And in Sweden, Lhyfe, OX2 and Velarion announced their collaboration on a hydrogen-based industrial cluster that would be powered by OX2’s 320MW Marktjärn wind farm. Elsewhere, PPC agreed to acquire Evryo Group’s Romanian renewables portfolio. Energiequelle signed a cooperation agreement with Brandpower Windkraft, paving the way for its entry into the Austrian market. Fortis Energy and PowerChina International signed a framework agreement regarding 850MW of wind and solar projects in Serbia and the wider region. And Fortum confirmed that the 380MW Pjelax in Finland had begun commercial operations. In the offshore sector, three sites were awarded in Germany’s auction. Foundations installation was completed at the 960MW He Dreiht. Equinor and Polenergia were granted permits for their Bałtyk 2 and 3 projects. And the 1.4GW Sofia’s offshore converter platform was installed.
In Australia, Renewable Energy Partners announced plans for the multi-phase 5GW Bogunda. But Province Resources put its plans for the wind and solar-powered HyEnergy green hydrogen project on hold. The 756MW Golden Plains’ construction was progressing, with works having commenced in the west section. The Queensland state assessment and referral agency (SARA) approved the 436.5MW Tarong West. And the Wimmera Plains Energy Facility was approved. Meanwhile, Alinta Energy and Parkwind submitted a feasibility application for the 1GW Spinifex offshore project. In China, construction of the 1GW Turpan and 650MW Burqin in Xinjiang and 600MW Mengdong Moqi in Inner Mongolia was under way. And the 656MW Changle Waihai J and 558MW Changle Waihai K off Fujian were approved, as was 1GW at Wenling I and II off Zhejiang. Elsewhere, a total of 2.7GW was allocated to five Taiwanese offshore projects, while foundations installation was completed at the 640MW Yunlin. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners completed the EIA consultation for the 1.5GW Haewoori Offshore Wind project off South Korea. And the EIAs for the 1.125GW MunmuBaram and 1.125GW KF Wind were approved.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 1,064GW at present, we expect to see the world’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 1,685GW by the end of the outlook period.
Asia-Pacific’s 883GW will account for just over half of this, Europe’s 418.3GW for a further quarter. The Americas’ 340.3GW will account for a fifth and the MEA’s 43.8GW, the remainder.
Europe
From an estimated 267.5GW at present, we foresee Europe’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having reached just over 418GW by the end of 2030.
This downwardly-revised forecast largely reflects Vattanfall’s decision to pause the development of its Swedish Kriegers Flak offshore project. It was initially intended to commence production at the wind farm in 2028, but the developer has deemed the 35-50-turbine project currently unviable. We have downgraded our long-term forecast for Sweden’s offshore capacity, accordingly.
Elsewhere, we still expect to see steady growth in all of the main European wind markets, with Germany’s on- and offshore totals expected to have reached 79.5GW and 26.2GW by 2030 and the UK’s, 26.4GW and 32.9GW.
In Spain, further steady growth will see its onshore total having reached almost 38GW by the end of the outlook period. And in France, growth in its on- and offshore sectors will see its totals having reached 31.4GW and 5.8GW by then.
North America
For North America as a whole, we expect to see around 257GW of installed wind capacity being in place by the end of 2030.
The USA alone will account for almost 225GW of this, with its 2030 on- and offshore totals forecast at around 206GW and 19GW.
On a state-by-state basis, we still expect Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas to account for around half of the USA’s onshore capacity between them, with their end-2030 totals forecast at 57.9GW, 17.3GW, 15.2GW and 11.5GW, respectively.
Meanwhile, our forecasts for Canada and Mexico are unchanged and we still expect their totals to have reached just under 23GW and just under 10GW by the end of the outlook period.
Asia-Pacific*
From an estimated 551GW at present, we expect to see the Asia-Pacific region being host to 883GW of on-and offshore wind capacity by the end of 2030.
China alone will account for 727GW of this, with its on- and offshore totals expected to have reached 652.6GW and 74.5GW by then.
India’s total is expected to have topped 63GW by the end of the outlook period and Australia’s, 27GW.
Elsewhere, we continue to forecast growth in Japan’s and Vietnam’s on- and offshore sectors, as well as South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors. Between them, these four countries’ waters are expected to be host to around 32GW by 2030.
Central & South America
From an estimated 45.7GW at present, we continue to expect to see Central & South America being host to just over 83GW by the end of 2030.
Brazil’s total is expected to have topped 50GW by then, while Chile’s total is forecast at 15.6GW. This, despite Atlas Renewable Energy’s withdrawal of its application for the 250MW Altos de Tablaruca project.
In Argentina and Uruguay, total installed capacity is expected to have reached 5.9GW and 1.8GW by the end of the outlook period. And for the ‘others’ in the region combined, we foresee around 10GW being in place by then, despite a number of projects being cancelled in Colombia.
Middle East & Africa
From around 23GW at present, we foresee the MEA region’s total installed capacity having reached almost 44GW by the end of 2030. Turkey alone will account for around two-fifths of this, with its total expected to have topped 18GW by then.
South Africa, Morocco and Egypt, meanwhile, are expected to be host to 6GW, 6.8GW and 4.5GW respectively by the end of the outlook period. And between them, the ‘others’ in the region will account for around 8GW.