Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
June saw no let up in activity. In the USA, the BLM issued the final environmental review for the Lava Ridge project in Idaho and delivery of 88 GE turbines for Puget Sound Energy’s 248MW Beaver Creek in Montana was under way. Meanwhile, following New York’s fourth offshore wind solicitation, the contracts were finalised for the 924MW Sunrise Wind and 810MW Empire Wind 1. In Canada, Enbridge announced plans to develop the 200MW Seven Stars in Saskatchewan. And in Chile, energisation was under way at the 816MW Horizonte.
In Scotland, first power was generated at SSE’s 443MW Viking and EDF presented its revised plans for the 400MW Liddesdale. And in Finland, VSB secured a final permit for the 350MW wind element of its Puutionsaari development. Elsewhere, Alcazar Energy announced plans for the up to 400MW Shtip wind farm in North Macedonia. And Iberdrola obtained environmental approval for Portugal’s largest wind farm, the 274MW Tâmega Eólico.
In the offshore sector, an application was submitted for the 3GW Dogger Bank South. Skyborn announced that it had submitted an application for the 3GW Polargrund in the Gulf of Bothnia and that it had commenced site investigations for its proposed 2GW Pooki. Meanwhile, Eolus submitted an application to develop the 2.2GW Skidbladner. Two consortia were awarded the 2GW IJmuiden Ver Alpha and 2GW IJmuiden Ver Beta projects in the Dutch North Sea. And in the German North Sea, TotalEnergies was awarded the 1.5GW N-11.2 site, while EnBW was awarded the rights to a 1GW project at the nearby N-12.3 site. Deep Wind Offshore was awarded the up to 1.56GW Saare 2.1 site off Estonia. And Vestas conditionally agreed to supply 112 V236-15.0 MW turbines to Vattenfall and BASF, for the 1.6GW Nordlicht 1 and 2 projects. Elsewhere, Västra Götaland County recommended that the Swedish Government approves Freja Offshore's application for the 2.5GW Mareld. Cadeler was contracted to install the 1.1GW Inch Cape’s turbines. And the EIB committed to a €1.2bn loan for RWE’s 1GW Thor.
In Australia, a feasibility licence was awarded for the up to 2GW Novocastrian floating project. TagEnergy reached financial close on the 577MW second stage of its Golden Plains project, while Vestas was awarded an EPC contract, involving the supply of 93 V162-6.2 MW turbines. Meanwhile, a public consultation opened on RWE's plans for the 1.1GW Theodore and Octopus acquired additional land for the development of the 1GW Merino. In China, the 1GW Horqin Left Rear Banner in Inner Mongolia was brought online, while the 500MW Gaolan I and 500MW Gaolan II off Guangdong were approved. And in South Korea, SK Ecoplant was contracted to install the floating foundations at CIP’s 1.5GW Haeuli project.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 1,051GW at mid-2024, our revised forecasts indicate an expectation of the world as a whole being host to just over 1,686GW of wind capacity by the end of 2030.
With 883.3GW, Asia-Pacific will account for just over half of this total, while Europe’s 418.8GW will account for a further quarter. The Americas’ 340.8GW will account for a fifth and the MEA’s 43.6GW, the remainder.
Europe
The main revision to our forecasts for Europe relates to the UK’s onshore sector, which will be given a significant boost from the new government’s scrapping of the de facto ban on new English onshore wind farms.
We expect the policy shift to result in faster capacity growth towards the end of the outlook period and have raised our forecast accordingly. We now expect to see around 26GW of onshore capacity in place in the UK by the end of 2030. Our UK offshore forecasts are unchanged and we still foresee UK waters being host to almost 33GW by the end of the outlook period.
Elsewhere, we continue to forecast further growth in Germany’s on- and offshore sectors, with the end-2030 totals expected to have reached almost 80GW and just over 26GW. Spain’s end-2030 total, meanwhile, is expected to have exceeded 40GW, with just over 2GW of that being offshore.
North America
Our forecasts for North America are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect to see just over 257GW in place by the end of the outlook period.
In the USA, we foresee total installed capacity having topped 225GW by 2030. Around 20GW of this will be offshore. Between them, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas will continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore capacity, with their 2030 totals set to hit 57.9GW, 17.3GW, 14.9GW and 11.5GW, respectively.
We foresee Canada’s total having reached almost 23GW by the end of the outlook period, with Mexico’s expected to have reached 9.4GW by then.
Asia-Pacific*
For the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, we expect to see around 883GW of on- and offshore wind capacity in place by the end of 2030.
China’s on- and offshore totals are expected to have topped 652GW and 74GW by then. India’s total should have reached just over 63GW by 2030, while further growth in Australia’s capacity should see its total having topped 27GW.
In Japan, growth in its onshore sector and nascent offshore sector should see its end-2030 totals having reached 8GW and 5.8GW, while similar growth is expected in Vietnam. Elsewhere, growth is also expected in South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors. Between them, these two countries’ waters should be host to around 21GW by the end of 2030.
Central & South America
From an estimated 44.4GW at mid-2024, we expect to see Central and South America's total installed capacity having topped 83GW by the end of 2030.
Brazil will see almost 20GW of incremental capacity growth between 2024 and 2030, taking its total to just under 50GW.
Chile’s total will approximately triple over the same period, to just under 16GW by 2030, while Argentina’s is expected to have reached 5.7GW by then.
Slower growth in Uruguay should see its 2030 total having edged up to 1.8GW, while the ‘others’ in the region combined are expected to be host to around 10GW by the end of the outlook period.
Middle East & Africa
Our forecasts for the Middle East & Africa are unchanged from a month ago and from an estimated 23.3GW at mid-2024, we continue to foresee the region being host to 43.6GW by 2030.
Turkey’s total is expected to have topped 18GW by the end of the outlook period, while South Africa’s, Morocco’s and Egypt’s end-2030 totals are forecast at 5.7GW, 6.8GW and 4.5GW.
Between them, the ‘others’ in the region should be host to 8.4GW by 2030, more than twice their estimated current total.