Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
May saw no let up in activity in the world’s major wind markets. Brookfield and Microsoft signed a PPA framework, linked to 10.5GW of new U.S. and European renewables capacity. Hitachi Energy signed a multi-year agreement with Pattern Energy, related to the SunZia Transmission Project. And Minnesota approved NextEra Energy’s 252MW Dodge County Wind. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities opened the fourth offshore wind solicitation, while foundations installation got under way at the 2.6GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind and 704MW Revolution Wind. The BOEM finalised the EIS for the 2.8GW Atlantic Shores and approved proposals to test suction bucket foundations at the 2.4GW Beacon Wind project site. Meanwhile, New York granted final approval to Equinor for the 810MW Empire Wind 1.
Brookfield was looking to acquire Neoen, while Statkraft completed its acquisition of Enerfin. GE Vernova and CIP announced their agreement for the supply of 125 x 6.1-158 turbines to the 760MW Teruel in Spain. DTEK was progressing its planned 650MW Poltavska project in Ukraine. In Scotland, consultation was under way for the 533MW Dorenell Extension project and final commissioning was under way at the 443MW Viking. Renewable Power Capital closed a €555m financing facility for its 553MW Swedish portfolio. And the 380MW Pjelax - Finland’s third largest wind farm - was inaugurated.
Vestas announced that it had signed a conditional agreement for the supply of turbines to a large-scale, two-phase offshore project in northern Europe. RWE was advancing its plans for the 1.6GW Nordseecluster, while foundations installation commenced at the 1.4GW Sofia and at the 1.2GW Dogger Bank B. The County Administrative Board of Gotland backed the plans for the 5.5GW Aurora. And Deep Wind Offshore and Ellevio were set to collaborate on the development of Swedish offshore wind capacity, with Deep Wind Offshore also having submitted an application for the Erik Segersäll floating project. And in France, the 497MW Fécamp was inaugurated, while the 496MW Saint-Brieuc began full operations.
In Egypt, Infinity Power, Hassan Allam Utilities and Masdar signed a Land Access Agreement for their 10GW development. In Uzbekistan, NEGU signed a PPA with ACWA Power, linked to the 5GW Aral development, while AMEA Power signed a PPA for a 1GW project. Meanwhile, Saudi Power Procurement Company signed PPAs for the 600MW Al Ghat and 500MW Wa’ad Al Shamal projects. In Australia, a scoping report was published for Squadron Energy’s planned 2GW Koorakee Energy Park. And the draft Public Environment Report for the 1,332MW Liverpool Range was made available for comment. In India, Suzlon announced just over 1GW of turbine purchase agreements. CIP marked the completion of construction at the 589MW Changfang-Xidao in the Taiwan Strait. And in China, the 600MW Maoniushan and 500MW Yuanzhou were granted the permission to build.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an estimated 1,047GW at present, we expect to see the world’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having reached just under 1,682GW by the end of the outlook period.
Asia-Pacific’s 881.8GW will account for just over half of this, with Europe’s 416.2GW accounting for a quarter. North America’s 257.4GW will account for 15% of the end-2030 global total, Central and South America’s 82.8GW for 5% and the MEA’s 43.6GW, for the remainder.
Europe
From around 264.5GW at present, we continue to foresee Europe’s combined on- and offshore wind capacity having topped 416GW by the end of 2030.
Germany’s onshore total is forecast to have reached almost 80GW by then, while German waters are expected to be host to just over 26GW.
Spain’s end-2030 total will have topped 40GW, with just over 2GW of that being offshore. Further growth in the UK and France will see their onshore sectors hosting 23.7GW and 31.1GW by then, while their offshore totals are forecast at 32.9GW and 5.8GW.
North America
From an estimated 175GW at present, we expect to see North America’s total installed wind capacity having topped 257GW by the end of the outlook period.
In the USA, just over 225GW is forecast to be in place by 2030, 20GW of which would be offshore. On a state-by-state basis, we foresee further growth in Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas, with their end-2030 totals forecast at 57.9GW, 17.3GW, 14.9GW and 11.5GW, respectively. Between them, the ‘other’ U.S. states should be host to 103.5GW of onshore capacity by then.
Canada’s end-2030 total is expected to have topped 22GW, while Mexico’s should have reached almost 10GW.
Asia-Pacific*
From an estimated 540GW at present, we now expect to see the Asia-Pacific region being host to just under 882GW of on- and offshore wind capacity by the end of the outlook period.
China’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 651.4GW and 74.5GW, representing growth from the current 421GW and 38.5GW.
Australia’s end-2030 total is forecast at 27.6GW. This upwardly revised forecast reflects the addition to the pipeline of the Koorakee Energy Park. Planned for a site in New South Wales, the development will comprise up to 1GW of wind capacity, alongside solar capacity and a battery energy storage system. We expect it to come online towards the end of the outlook period.
And in India, from the current 45.4GW, we expect to see just over 63GW being in place by then.
Central & South America
We foresee Central and South America being host to 82.8GW by the end of 2030. The region currently hosts an estimated 44.3GW.
Around half of the incremental capacity will materialise in Brazil, where the total is expected to have reached almost 50GW by the end of the outlook period.
Strong growth in Chile will see its total having reached almost 16GW by 2030, with more modest growth in Argentina and Uruguay raising their totals to 5.7GW and 1.8GW. Meanwhile, the ‘others’ in the region combined will see their total more than tripling over 2024-2030, to just under 10GW.
Middle East & Africa
Our forecasts for the MEA are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect to see the region being host to 43.6GW by the end of the outlook period.
From 12.3GW at present, we foresee around 6GW being added in Turkey over the outlook period, taking its end-2030 total to just over 18GW.
Capacity growth in South Africa, Morocco and Egypt is also expected, with their end-2030 installed totals forecast at 5.7GW, 6.8GW and 4.5GW respectively.
Meanwhile, the ‘others’ in the region combined are expected to be host to 8.4GW by the end of the outlook period. They currently host around 3.3GW.