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While the Black Sea currently hosts no offshore wind farms, the World Bank has estimated its technical offshore wind potential at 435GW, of which 269GW could come from bottom-fixed turbines. 

The Black Sea could be part of the next wave of development for offshore wind, after the sector got started in northern Europe, followed by China, and is now taking off in the US and other part of Asia, expects Craig Brown, head of market studies for Offshore Wind Consultants (OWC). 

Alex Gospodinov, CEO of Hooracán Energy, an early-stage developer, notes that “wind resources in the Black Sea are concentrated on the western side” of the sea in Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. 

Apart from war-torn Ukraine, all other Black Sea countries with significant offshore wind resources are taking steps to establish market frameworks. 

EU advantage 

Hooracán is developing one Black Sea project in Romania and three in Bulgaria, all at a pre-exclusivity stage. 

Both countries have commercially viable wind speeds, and the fact they are European Union members is good for offtake deals and legal arrangements, said Brown of OWC. “It’s less risky to work with EU utilities and regulators because there are climate mandates in the EU and decarbonisation is happening.” 

Investor bullishness on Romania’s market increased after the parliament adopted legislation on offshore wind in April 2024, establishing a roadmap for the development of offshore wind, including the identification of offshore wind zones that are slated to be opened to a tender by the energy ministry in 2025. 

By 2027, the government is expected to announce rules for contracts for difference (CfDs) and the offtake mechanism. 

Romania is aiming for 3GW of offshore wind farms by 2035, and it expects its first Black Sea wind farms to be operating by 2032.  

“The adoption of the law highlighted broad political consensus backing for offshore wind and institutional support,” said Alina Arsani, head of the energy systems programme at independent Romanian think tank Energy Policy Group (EPG). 

Big to do list

Some challenges facing the development of offshore wind in the region are common with other nascent markets. 

EPG’s Arsani says the biggest challenge to the growth of offshore wind in Romania is the need to develop grid infrastructure, but also to set up the proper fiscal and support frameworks. 

Romania’s EPG has proposed a shared energy island in the Black Sea with Bulgaria as a solution to the grid infrastructure needs faced by both countries and also to increase the attractiveness of offshore wind investments in the region. 

“The cost of energy needs to be competitive, the regulatory framework needs to be ironed out, and investors and project developers need to be comfortable with the seabed lease and offtake arrangements,” OWC’s Brown added. 

Black Sea port infrastructure will also need to be expanded and adapted for offshore wind. 

Brown notes that Romania has good port infrastructure to build off and also has a track record in oil and gas that it could leverage for offshore wind. “It will still take time for the supply chain to develop,” he added. 

The World Bank estimates that the levelised cost of energy (LCoE) for offshore wind farms in Romania in 2029 will be 45% higher than projects in established wind markets. This is mainly due to lower wind speeds (see below), with a capacity factor of about 41% in the country versus 49% for established markets. 

Other factors cited by the World Bank for the higher LCoE include a higher weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the fact that it is a new market and higher logistics costs. However, the LCoE for Romanian offshore wind could be brought down faster in a high growth scenario leading to economies of scale and supply chain development, the World Bank suggested. 

Bulgaria lags behind 

Bulgaria is also discussing its regulatory framework, although draft offshore wind legislation has been met with opposition from fishing and tourism sectors, as well as some NGOs. 

There is a risk that amendments to the law could lead to watered-down legislation, Hooracán’s Gospodinov points out, “meaning that nothing will happen until floating wind is developed in mature markets”. 

Nonetheless, he expects the future development of offshore wind in the country and region to be driven largely by market forces. 

Gospodinov sees the levelised cost of offshore and onshore wind projects in Bulgaria and Romania increasingly converging, as the best onshore sites are taken up and as the efficiency of offshore wind turbines increases and floating technology becomes commercially available towards the end of the decade.

Turkey prepares groundwork 

The Turkish government aims to have 5GW of offshore wind capacity by 2035 and is the furthest advanced in the region with its offshore wind plans. 

Earlier this spring, the energy minister received tender offers as it aims to select a consortium to conduct studies on wind speeds and other technical characteristics of potential offshore sites ahead of seabed auctions. Murat Durak, chairman of the Turkish Offshore Wind Energy Association, expects seabed auctions could take place around late 2026. 

Turkey is carrying out these preparations after the country in 2018 scrapped a planned 1.2GW offshore wind tender. Investor interest in 2018 tender was scant, largely because essential data on wind speeds and other site characteristics was not yet available. 

Istanbul on the Sea of Marmara (pic credit: Alexander Spatari/Getty Images)

The first projects are likely to be sited in Turkey’s Sea of Marmara (above), which links the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea, and hosts the three areas on which site studies will be conducted. 

Durak said Turkey is well-positioned to exploit its offshore wind resources when it comes to factors like port infrastructure and the grid.  

Given Turkey’s high inflation and fluctuating currency, however, Durak believes that a support mechanism that reassures investors and facilitates project financing will be key. 

Ukrainian promise 

Ukraine has the highest offshore wind potential in the region, although the war has impeded offshore development. 

The World Bank places Ukraine’s offshore potential at 251GW, and estimates 183GW of this could use fixed-bottom foundations. Ukraine is unique among other Baltic Sea countries in that its largest potential lies with fixed-bottom turbines. 

Building wind farms in Ukraine’s Black Sea waters could potentially be a cornerstone of eventual post-war reconstruction efforts.

Cargo ship and naval mines in the Black Sea off Ukraine (pic credit: Anton Petrus/Getty Images)

However, the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association has stressed that its Black Sea waters would have to be demined before projects are implemented. 

Gospodinov of Hoorocán is among those hoping that Ukraine’s market will open to offshore wind. “The wind is much stronger here and the continental shelf much wider” than in other Black Sea countries,” he said.