Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
Recent weeks have seen no let up in the pace of activity. In the USA, NYSERDA provisionally awarded 24 contracts totalling almost 2.4GW, to New York wind and solar projects. But having provisionally awarded 4GW of contracts in the third offshore wind solicitation, it then confirmed their cancellation. Elsewhere, CIP acquired Liberty Renewables, Nova Clean Energy acquired HyFuels and RWE announced a strategic relationship with WhiteRock Renewables. Meanwhile, Avangrid announced that it had received a Record of Decision for its up to 2.6GW New England Wind. Eversource Energy finalised the documentation for the sale of its 50% stake in the 924MW Sunrise Wind. And the Bureau of Land Management extended the public scoping period for NextEra Energy’s 600MW Jackalope project in Wyoming.
In Norway, H2Carrier filed applications for the 950MW Oksefjorden and 600MW Rubbedalshøgda. In Ukraine, planners backed DTEK's 650MW Poltavska, while Iberdrola exited the Romanian market and Ørsted agreed to divest its French onshore business. Offshore, Ireland launched its ‘Future Framework for Offshore Renewable Energy’ and the largest ever Danish auction was launched. But Lithuania’s second tender was unsuccessful. The 5.5GW Aurora was granted a Natura 2000 permit, the 4GW Bothnia’s EIA programme was launched and the applications were accepted for the 1.5GW Outer Dowsing and 353MW Five Estuaries. Vattenfall agreed the sale of 49% stakes in the 1.6GW Nordlicht 1 and 2 to BASF. And Macquarie Asset Management agreed to divest a 10% stake in the 714MW East Anglia ONE. EDF was set to partner with ESB and Reventus Power on the up to 1.5GW Gwynt Glas, while the 1.3GW Codling Wind Park’s final design was confirmed. Meanwhile, turbine installation commenced at the 882MW Moray West. And Shell confirmed that the 759MW Hollandse Kust Noord had begun full commercial operations in March.
In Australia, feasibility licences were awarded for projects off Gippsland, Victoria. Consultation on initial proposals for the 2GW Bunbury was nearing its end. And Alinta Energy and JERA Nex announced their intention to co-develop the 1GW+ Spinifex. Onshore, the 923MW MacIntyre’s transmission line was completed and the 412MW Goyder South Stage 1 delivered its first power. In Bahrain, Masdar and Bapco Energies were looking to develop up to 2GW of near- and offshore wind capacity. In the Taiwan Strait, offshore construction commenced at the 1GW Hai Long, while Ørsted inaugurated the 900MW Greater Changhua 1 and 2a. In China, the 900MW Shandong Peninsula North N2 was approved. And in India, Envision Energy agreed to supply 178 EN 156-3.3 MW turbines to Hero Future Energies. Elsewhere, the EBRD was considering a loan of up to $140m to finance the acquisition of the 580MW Gabal El Zeit in Egypt. And in Morocco, Masen launched the tender for the 400MW Nassim Nord complex.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an upwardly revised estimated total of just over 1,019GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see the world as a whole being host to just over 1,679GW of on- and offshore wind capacity by the end of 2030.
With 879.8GW, Asia-Pacific will account for just over half of this, while Europe will be host to one quarter of the 2030 global total. The Americas’ 339.3GW will account for a further fifth, with the MEA region accounting for the remainder.
Europe
Our forecasts for Europe remain largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect there to be just over 416GW of on- and offshore wind capacity in place by 2030.
Germany’s onshore total should have reached 79.6GW by then, its offshore total, 26GW. In Spain, further growth will see its end-2030 total having topped 40GW, with around 2GW of this having materialised offshore.
The UK’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 23.7GW and 32.9GW, while France’s are forecast at 31.1GW and 5.8GW.
North America
From an upwardly revised end-2023 total of 173GW, we expect to see North America’s total installed wind capacity having reached almost 257GW by 2030.
In the USA, we are less bullish on the outlook for offshore capacity growth. As a result, we now foresee 20GW of U.S. offshore capacity being in place by 2030, around 4GW less than we had previously envisaged.
Onshore, we continue to forecast further capacity growth and expect Texas’, Iowa’s, Oklahoma’s and Kansas’ end-2030 totals to have reached 57.5GW, 17.3GW, 14.9GW and 11.5GW respectively. Combined, the ‘other’ U.S. states will be host to just over 103GW by then.
In Canada, we expect to see over 22GW in place by the end of the outlook period, while Mexico’s total should have reached almost 10GW.
Asia-Pacific*
From an upwardly revised end-2023 total of 519.6GW, we expect to see Asia-Pacific’s total on- and offshore wind capacity having reached 880GW by the end of the outlook period.
China’s onshore total is expected to have reached 651GW by then, while its waters should be host to just over 74GW. In India, further capacity growth will see its end-2030 total having topped 63GW, while Australia’s is forecast at 26.6GW.
In Japan, we expect to see 8GW onshore and 5.1GW offshore by 2030, while Vietnam’s on- and offshore totals are forecast at 6GW each.
Elsewhere, growth in South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors should see their end-2030 offshore totals having reached 9.5GW and 11.5GW respectively.
Central & South America
Our upwardly revised estimate of Central & South America’s end-2023 total is 43.6GW. By the end of 2030, we expect to see this having reached 82.5GW.
In Brazil, just over 19GW will be added over the 2024-30 period, taking the total there to almost 50GW.
Chile’s total is expected to have reached almost 16GW by the end of the outlook period, Argentina’s, almost 6GW, while slower growth in Uruguay will see its total having edged up to 1.8GW.
Meanwhile, the ‘others’ in the region are expected to be host to just under 10GW by 2030. Their current total is around 3GW.
Middle East & Africa
From an upwardly revised end-2023 total of 23GW, we foresee the Middle East & Africa’s total installed wind capacity having reached 43.6GW by 2030.
In Turkey, we foresee around 6GW of incremental capacity appearing over the 2024-30 period, taking its total to just over 18GW.
In South Africa, Egypt and Morocco, we expect to see 5.7GW, 7GW and 4.3GW in place by the end of the outlook period. And in the ‘others’ in the region combined, we foresee just over 8GW.