Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
March saw continued activity in several of the world’s major wind markets. In the USA, Ørsted’s and Eversource’s 924MW Sunrise Wind and Equinor’s 810MW Empire Wind 1 were successful in New York’s fourth offshore wind solicitation. Ocean Winds, EDP Renewables’ and ENGIE’s 50/50 joint venture, acquired full ownership of the SouthCoast Wind project off Massachusetts. And the BOEM was set to initiate an environmental review of the proposed 2.6GW Vineyard Northeast project, also planned for a site off Massachusetts. Onshore, Ørsted agreed to divest to Stonepeak, an equity ownership stake in a 957MW portfolio. Vestas received a 554MW order for an undisclosed project. And Exus North America acquired 306MW of operational capacity in Pennsylvania. In Brazil, Pan American Energy began operating three of the ten wind farms at its 423MW Novo Horizonte complex. And in Mexico, Sempra placed a 319MW order with Vestas, for the Cimarrón wind farm in Baja California.
In Sweden, Vattenfall received a final environmental permit for its up to 530MW Norrbäck and Pauträsk project. But in Scotland, local councillors objected to Community 搖錢樹娛樂城’s plans for the 432MW Scoop Hill. In the Netherlands, the 515MW Windplan Groen was newly online and turbine installation was completed at the 339MW Windplanblauw. SSE and Bord na Móna announced a 50:50 joint venture, aimed at delivering up to 800MW of new Irish onshore wind capacity. And Oschadbank was set to support the financing of a 520MW wind farm in western Ukraine.
In the offshore sector, a consortium comprising Ikea-owner Ingka Investments and Parkwind was successful in Norway’s first offshore wind tender. In the UK, an application was submitted for the 1.5GW Outer Dowsing. And RWE completed the acquisition from Vattenfall, of the Norfolk Vanguard West, Norfolk Vanguard East and Norfolk Boreas projects. But SSE and Equinor scrapped plans to use output from their planned 1.32GW Dogger Bank D to produce green hydrogen. Ignitis launched an EIA for its proposed 700MW Lithuania Offshore I project. Turbine installation was completed at the 497MW Fécamp. And Iberdrola signed a 15-year PPA with O2 Telefónica, linked to the 476MW Baltic Eagle.
In China, much additional capacity was brought online, commenced construction or was approved. In Australia, Tasmania's minister for planning declared the 3GW Whaleback Ridge wind farm a major project. AGL was consulting on its plans for the Pottinger Energy Park, which will host 1.2GW of wind alongside solar and battery storage. And the EPA was planning to appeal a court decision that allows the 900MW Robbins Island to proceed. Elsewhere, JSW Energy was awarded an additional 500MW of wind capacity by the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI). And plans for a 1.2GW offshore wind farm that would deliver electricity from Vietnam to Singapore were unveiled.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From just under 1,014GW at the end of 2023, we foresee the world’s total installed wind capacity having reached almost 1,678GW by the end of 2030.
Asia-Pacific’s 879.6GW will account for just over half of this end-2030 total, with Europe’s 416.6GW accounting for a quarter.
With 257.6GW and 81.3GW respectively, North America and Central & South America will account for much of the remainder, with the MEA’s 42.7GW representing a 2.5% share of the 2030 global total.
Europe
Our forecasts for Europe are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect the region’s total on- and offshore wind capacity to have topped 416GW by 2030.
We foresee Germany’s onshore total having reached 79.6GW by then and its offshore total, just over 26GW. Spain’s total will have topped 40GW by 2030, when 38GW of onshore capacity and just over 2GW offshore should be in place.
The UK’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 23.7GW and 32.9GW, while France’s are expected to have reached 31.1GW and 5.8GW.
North America
From 170GW at the end of last year, we continue to expect to see North America’s total installed capacity having topped 257GW by the end of 2030.
The USA’s total is expected to have topped 226GW by then, around 24GW of which will be offshore. On a state-by-state basis, we continue to foresee Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas combined accounting for around half of the USA’s onshore total. Their end-2030 totals are forecast at 57.2GW, 17.1GW, 14.8GW and 10.9GW respectively.
In Canada, we expect to see total installed capacity having reached 22GW by the end of the outlook period, while in Mexico, growth to just under 10GW is forecast.
Asia-Pacific*
From 518.5GW at the end of 2023, we still expect Asia-Pacific’s total installed wind capacity to have reached almost 880GW by the end of the outlook period.
China’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 651.5GW and 74.2GW. India’s total is expected to have reached just over 63GW, while Australia’s will have topped 26GW.
Growth in Japan’s on- and offshore capacity will see its totals having reached around 8GW and almost 6GW by 2030, while similar growth in Vietnam should see it hosting around 6GW onshore and a similar volume offshore, by then.
Elsewhere, the addition to the pipeline of a further 100MW in the Philippines results in an upwards revision to our long-term incremental capacity forecast for the ‘others’ in the region.
Central & South America
From an estimated 42.5GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see Central & South America’s total installed capacity having topped 81GW by 2030.
In Brazil, we foresee around 19GW being added over the outlook period, taking its end-2030 total to just over 48GW.
Chile’s total is expected to more than triple, to 15.8GW, while Argentina’s end-2030 total is forecast at 5.7GW.
Elsewhere, Uruguay’s total will edge up to 1.8GW, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for just under 10GW by the end of the outlook period.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 22.6GW at the end of last year, we still expect to see the MEA region’s total installed capacity having reached almost 43GW by the end of 2030.
Almost 6GW of this incremental capacity will appear in Turkey, with its total expected to have reached almost 18GW by the end of the outlook period.
Our incremental capacity forecasts for South Africa, Morocco, Egypt and the ‘others’ in the region are unchanged and we still expect them to be host to 5.7GW, 4.3GW, 6.6GW and 8.4GW respectively, by the end of 2030.