Project summary
David Carr, Data Editor
February saw assets changing hands, contracts being signed and new capacity being commissioned. In the USA, Dominion Energy agreed to sell a 50% stake in the 2.6GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind to Stonepeak. Eversource announced that it was to exit the 704MW Revolution Wind and 132MW South Fork Wind, selling its 50% stakes to Global Infrastructure Partners. Ørsted’s and Eversource’s 924MW Sunrise Wind and Equinor’s 810MW Empire Wind 1 were successful in New York’s fourth offshore wind solicitation. And the BOEM approved the Construction and Operations Plan for the 2GW Empire Wind 1 and 2. It also completed its environmental review of the up to 2.6GW New England Wind project and announced the designation of two final Wind Energy Areas off Oregon. Onshore, Minnesota Power issued a Request for Proposals for up to 400MW and NorthRenew Energy sold its 300MW Arco Wind and Solar project in Idaho to PacifiCorp. In Canada, CC&L Infrastructure agreed to acquire an 80% stake in EDPR’s 297MW Sharp Hills. And in Brazil, Statkraft inaugurated its partially operational 519MW Ventos de Santa Eugênia complex.
Power deals were awarded to 57 projects in France and 16 in Italy. And Valorem signed a cooperation agreement with Tribrid, regarding 1GW of wind and solar projects in Sweden. In the offshore sector, Fugro was contracted to survey the 4GW Doordewind zone. Masdar completed its acquisition of a 49% stake in the 3GW Dogger Bank South. Siemens Gamesa agreed to supply turbines to the 1.44GW Bałtyk II and III. And Cadeler was contracted to install turbines at Baltica 2, while Van Oord was contracted to install the 1.5GW development’s monopiles. Eolus submitted a revised application for the 1GW Blekinge and agreed to take on the full ownership of SeaSapphire. Google signed PPAs with Shell and Eneco, linked to Hollandse Kust Noord and Hollandse Kust West VI. Iberdrola and O2 Telefónica signed a 15-year PPA, for 3,000 GWh from the 476MW Baltic Eagle. And a 540MW hybrid offshore wind-solar farm was being planned off Calabria, Italy.
In India, Inox Wind and CESC announced the signing of a 1.5GW framework agreement. In Pakistan, Oracle Power was progressing a 1.3GW solar-wind plant. In China, construction of the 400MW Woyang I in Anhui and 200MW Cangnan 1 Phase II off Zhejiang was under way. In Australia, Countrywide Hydrogen announced a partnership with Alinta Energy, on the 1GW Spinifex off Victoria. Onshore, Rio Tinto agreed to purchase 80% of the output of Windlab’s planned 1.4GW Bungaban wind farm for 25 years. Concrete pours were completed at Acciona’s 923MW MacIntyre and Origin Energy acquired Walcha Energy, including its proposed 860MW Ruby Hills. And in the Taiwan Strait, turbine installation was completed at the 900MW Greater Changhua 1 and 2a.
Monthly forecast
Xinxin Wang, Insights Analyst
From an upwardly revised end-2023 estimate of 1,013.7GW, we foresee the world’s on- and offshore wind capacity total having topped 1,677GW by the end of 2030.
Asia-Pacific’s 880GW will account for just over half of this, Europe’s 416.5GW for a quarter and the Americas’ 338GW for one fifth. The MEA’s 42.7GW will comprise the remainder.
Europe
Our upwardly revised end-2023 estimate for Europe’s on- and offshore capacity total is just over 260GW. By the end of the outlook period, we foresee this having reached 416.5GW.
From 61.1GW and 8.5GW, we expect to see Germany’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals having risen to 79.6GW and 26.2GW.
Spain’s end-2030 onshore total is forecast at 38.2GW, while Spanish waters should be host to around 2.4GW by then.
The 2024-2030 period should see the UK’s on- and offshore totals rising to 23.7GW and 32.9GW, while those in France are expected to have reached 31.1GW and 5.8GW by the end of the outlook period.
North America
From 170GW at the end of 2023, we continue to forecast North America’s end-2030 total having topped 257GW.
Our forecasts for the USA are largely unchanged and we still foresee the onshore total there having topped 200GW by the end of the outlook period. The USA’s end-2030 offshore total, meanwhile, is expected to have reached 24GW.
On a state-by-state basis, Texas’, Iowa’s, Oklahoma’s and Kansas’ combined total will continue to account for around half of the USA’s onshore total. They are expected to be host to 57.2GW, 17.1GW, 14.8GW and 10.9GW respectively, by 2030.
Elsewhere, we have made a minor revision to our end-2030 forecast for the ‘other’ US states’ onshore total, reflecting the addition to the pipeline of the newly identified Shovel Creek project in Alaska.
In Canada, we foresee total capacity having reached 22GW by 2030, while Mexico’s total will be just short of 10GW by then.
Asia-Pacific*
From an estimated 518.5GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see growth in Asia-Pacific’s wind capacity to just under 880GW by the end of 2030.
China’s end-2030 on- and offshore totals are forecast at 651.5GW and 74.2GW, while India should be host to 63.6GW by then. And further capacity growth in Australia will see its total having topped 26GW by the end of the outlook period.
Elsewhere, strong growth in Japan’s, Vietnam’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s offshore sectors is forecast, such that their waters are expected to be host to around 33GW between them by the end of the outlook period.
Central & South America
Our forecasts for Central & South America are largely unchanged from a month ago and we still expect to see the region’s end-2030 total having topped 80GW.
In Brazil, around 19GW will be added over the outlook period, taking its total to just over 48GW. Chile’s total will approximately triple to 15.7GW and Argentina’s will have reached just under 6GW by 2030.
More modest growth in Uruguay will see its total having edged up to 1.8GW by then, while the ‘others’ in the region will account for around 9GW by 2030.
Middle East & Africa
From an estimated 22.6GW at the end of 2023, we expect to see the MEA region’s total installed capacity having reached 42.7GW by the end of 2030.
In Turkey, we foresee over 5GW being added over the outlook period, taking the end-2030 total there to 17.7GW.
South Africa’s total will almost double, to just under 6GW, while Morocco’s and Egypt’s end-2030 totals are forecast at 4.3GW and 6.6GW respectively.
Between them, the ‘others’ in the region will account for 8.4GW by 2030, around 5GW more than their current total.
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