Europe to connect nearly 500GW of offshore renewables by 2050

Europe could connect up to 496GW of offshore renewables to the grid by 2050 – of which more than three-quarters in the EU – according to the first offshore network development plans (ONDPs).

Europe could connect up to 500GW of offshore renewables – much of it wind – to the grid by 2050 (pic credit: imaginima/E+ via Getty Images)

Published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), the plans are the first comprehensive crossborder review of existing offshore grid capacity and future requirements.

The ONDPs should help to accelerate the expansion of offshore wind and facilitate the deployment of innovative grid solutions to integrate offshore wind power into Europe’s energy system.

They come on the back of the European Commission’s EU grid action plan, with 14 immediate measures to modernise Europe’s electricity grid and to prepare for the renewables-based electrification of the EU energy system.

They also translate the EU’s offshore renewable energy strategy and the national commitments at the Marienborg and Ostend summits into offshore transmission equipment needs and related costs.

WindEurope praised the plans for giving visibility to offshore wind developers, investors and the grid equipment supply chain on what offshore grids to expect for each European sea basin by 2030, 2040 and 2050.

“They’re key to better coordinating the expansion of offshore wind between countries and accelerating its deployment,” the industry association said in a statement.

The right approach

The EU is aiming for at least 300GW of offshore wind by 2050, up from around 20GW today.

The ONDPs suggest that as much as 384GW of EU offshore renewables capacity is possible, and almost 500GW across Europe as a whole, by 2050.

To achieve that, future grid connections should be designed at sea basin level rather than at national level, according to ENTSO-E.

It presented five ONDPs – one each for: the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Atlantic Basin, the West Mediterranean, and the East Mediterranean and Black Sea.

The ONDPs see significant potential for hybrid offshore wind farms with connections to two or more countries. These could become an important part of Europe’s meshed and interconnected offshore grid. According to the ONDPs, 14% of all offshore renewables could be connected as hybrids.

“Connecting offshore wind generation to the grid is a challenge for all TSOs in Europe, as well as for generators, manufacturers, national governments and all other interested parties,” said Zbyněk Boldiš, president of ENTSO-E.

“The ONDPs emphasise the need for close coordination and the involvement of all European stakeholders. Only by acting together will we be able to successfully meet this tremendous challenge,” he added.

WindEurope chief executive, Giles Dickson, said the ONDPs are a significant step forward as they will help people decide how best to build out offshore grids and how to tackle grid bottlenecks.

“They also inform the evolution of hybrid offshore wind farms, energy islands and other innovative ways of integrating offshore wind power into Europe’s energy system,” he said.

Cost-sharing is key

WindEurope said the European wind industry is willing to invest in hybrid offshore wind farms “if the business model is right”. But the current regulatory framework, it said, “does not provide a clear revenue perspective for developers”.

Dickson stressed that political support for the growth of offshore wind is extremely strong across Europe. “But the politics around grid access and grid connections, especially hybrid grid connections, are complicated,” he noted.

“It’s essential to resolve the cost-sharing issue as soon as possible. Otherwise the EU risks missing out on investments,” he added.

Under ongoing discussions on the electricity market design, the EU has proposed transmission access guarantees (TAG) that will help derisk investments in hybrid offshore wind farms. The EU “should urgently implement TAGs now”, WindEurope said.

To create long-term market reliability for wind farm developers, OEMs and grid operators, TSOs should clearly indicate how much capacity they expect to be connected to one national onshore landing point (radial) and how much capacity they expect to be hybrid – connected to two or more landing points, it added.