Health benefits 'to repay global decarbonisation costs'

Global decarbonisation requires $130 trillion of investment in new renewables, system flexibility, and electrification. But this outlay would repay itself up to eight times over by reducing the health and environmental costs of global warming, the International Renewable Energy Association (Irena) said.

A climate-safe path would require cumulative energy investments of US$110 trillion by 2050 but achieving full carbon neutrality would add another US$20 trillion

This level of low-carbon investment would help achieve carbon neutrality as early as 2050, or by 2060听at the latest, Irena said in its Global Renewables Outlook.

It would help boost cumulative global gross domestic product (GDP) gains above business-as-usual by $98 trillion between now and 2050, and nearly quadruple renewable energy jobs to 42 million by mid-century.

This low-carbon investment would also result in savings eight times more than costs when accounting for reduced health and environmental externalities, Irena added.

Under a less ambitious pathway 鈥 though one which still reaches the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement 鈥 the global wind fleet would need to rise from 514GW in 2017 to over 6TW by 2050.

Solar PV, meanwhile, would increase more rapidly from 384GW to 8.52TW.

In Irena鈥檚 Transforming Energy Scenario 鈥 in which $110 trillion is invested, and global warming is still limited to 鈥渨ell below 2C鈥, in line with the Paris Agreement 鈥 renewable energy鈥檚 share of electricity generation (including hydro) would rise from 26% in 2017 to 86% by 2050.

Irena鈥檚 director-general Francesco La Camera said post-coronavirus (Covid-19) stimulus packages were an opportunity to invest towards a low-carbon world.

鈥淏y accelerating renewables and making the energy transition an integral part of the wider recovery, governments can achieve multiple economic and social objectives in the pursuit of a resilient future that leaves nobody behind,"听he added.

Irena鈥檚 Transforming Energy Scenario is built around five technological pillars: green hydrogen, extended end-use electrification, increased power system flexibility, conventional renewable energy sources, and fostering innovation to address challenging sectors.

The agency believes investment in these five areas would increase welfare in all global regions while creating a net gain of jobs in the energy sector 鈥 despite the loss of fossil fuels.

Regional growth in jobs and GDP would be uneven, Irena conceded, but most regions could expect gains in a scenario in which global warming is limited to 2.5C.

It added that under this most ambitious pathway, renewable energy鈥檚 share of total energy use would increase in all regions, rising to 70-80% in south-east Asia, Latin America, the EU and sub-Saharan Africa.

Meanwhile, electrification of end-uses 鈥 for example, in heat and transport 鈥 would rise everywhere, including over 50% in east Asia, North America and much of Europe.